Match spotlight · xGB Core · Sat 17 Oct, 16:15

57%PSG WIN

Strasbourg vs PSG

The model's marquee match: 21% home, 57% away. Play this fixture 10,000 times and expect STR winning 2120, the draw 2190, PSG winning 5680.

Over 2.5 goals · 65%Full assessment →

STR WIN21%DRAW22%PSG WIN57%

1–2

Likeliest PSG win

Gameweek 7 board — all assessments

Next round on Fri 16 Oct

Draw watchLE—AUX29%LOR—MON27%LMF—TOU26%the week's likeliest stalemates

PAR — RENSun 16:15

H 45%D 25%A 31%

LOR — MONSun 16:15

H 31%D 27%A 43%

LIL — BRESat 19:45

H 52%D 25%A 23%

ANG — MARSun 14:00

H 22%D 23%A 55%

LE — AUXSun 16:15

H 40%D 29%A 32%

LMF — TOUFri 19:45

H 30%D 26%A 45%

TRO — LENSat 19:45

H 11%D 17%A 72%

LYO — NICSun 19:45

H 58%D 23%A 19%

Finished — graded

REN — AUX4–1

✓ calledgave this 56%

LOR — PAR1–0

✓ calledgave this 37%

BRE — ANG5–1

✓ calledgave this 56%

MON — TOU2–2

✗ missedgave this 25%

PSG — LMF3–1

✓ calledgave this 79%

LEN — LYO2–1

✓ calledgave this 53%

LIL — LE1–0

✓ calledgave this 63%

NIC — STR2–1

✗ missedgave this 36%

TRO — MAR0–2

✓ calledgave this 67%

Gameweek 8 — next up

Assessed already, before a ball is kicked. These re-price as this week’s results land.

Draw watchANG—LOR29%MON—LIL28%AUX—LMF26%the week's likeliest stalemates

BRE — NICFri 19:45

H 50%D 24%A 26%

TOU — TROSat 16:15

H 70%D 19%A 11%

LEN — PARSat 19:45

H 58%D 23%A 19%

MON — LILSun 14:00

H 42%D 28%A 30%

ANG — LORSun 16:15

H 29%D 29%A 42%

AUX — LMFSun 16:15

H 44%D 26%A 30%

MAR — LESun 16:15

H 64%D 20%A 16%

REN — STRSun 16:15

H 47%D 23%A 30%

PSG — LYOSun 19:45

H 62%D 21%A 17%

Player projections — Gameweek 8


Esteban Lepaul REN	REN v STR	0.51	0.18	40%	17%
Amine Gouiri MAR	MAR v LE	0.42	0.50	35%	39%
Florian Thauvin LEN	LEN v PAR	0.41	0.51	33%	40%
Kamory Doumbia BRE	BRE v NIC	0.40	0.15	33%	14%
Sepe Elye Wahi NIC	BRE v NIC	0.30	0.08	26%	8%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia PSG	PSG v LYO	0.29	0.26	25%	23%
Mbwana Samatta LE	MAR v LE	0.27	0.10	24%	10%
Ludovic Ajorque BRE	BRE v NIC	0.24	0.27	22%	24%
Pathé Mboup BRE	BRE v NIC	0.24	0.21	21%	19%
Amine Sbaï ANG	ANG v LOR	0.21	0.30	19%	26%
Corentin Tolisso LYO	PSG v LYO	0.19	0.21	18%	19%
Danny Namaso AUX	AUX v LMF	0.19	0.26	18%	23%
Matthieu Udol LEN	LEN v PAR	0.18	0.21	16%	19%
Hákon Haraldsson LIL	MON v LIL	0.17	0.18	15%	16%
Mousa Al Tamari REN	REN v STR	0.13	0.22	13%	20%
Gessime Yassine STR	REN v STR	0.12	0.40	12%	33%
Ludovic Blas REN	REN v STR	0.12	0.25	12%	22%
Jonathan Clauss NIC	BRE v NIC	0.09	0.31	9%	27%
Cristian Cásseres Jr. TOU	TOU v TRO	0.05	0.55	5%	42%
Emerson MAR	MAR v LE	0.03	0.40	3%	33%

Today’s headlines

Lens win — The round's most lopsided assessment: TRO vs LEN.

LE vs AUX — No outcome reaches even money — the round's tightest call.

LE–AUX stalemate — The round's likeliest draw — a first-class outcome here.

Most likely to score or assist


Florian Thauvin LEN	TRO v LEN	0.50	0.62	39%	46%
Esteban Lepaul REN	PAR v REN	0.38	0.14	31%	13%
Amine Gouiri MAR	ANG v MAR	0.37	0.44	31%	35%
Mbwana Samatta LE	LE v AUX	0.35	0.13	29%	12%
Corentin Tolisso LYO	LYO v NIC	0.35	0.37	29%	31%
Abdallah Sima LEN	TRO v LEN	0.28	0.14	24%	13%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia PSG	STR v PSG	0.27	0.25	24%	22%
Lassine Sinayoko PAR	PAR v REN	0.27	0.06	24%	6%
Ernest Nuamah LYO	LYO v NIC	0.26	0.12	23%	12%
Hákon Haraldsson LIL	LIL v BRE	0.24	0.26	22%	23%
Amine Sbaï ANG	ANG v MAR	0.23	0.32	20%	28%
Matthieu Udol LEN	TRO v LEN	0.22	0.25	20%	22%
Luca Koleosho PAR	PAR v REN	0.20	0.21	18%	19%
Ilan Kebbal PAR	PAR v REN	0.16	0.29	15%	25%
Pavel Sulc LYO	LYO v NIC	0.15	0.24	14%	22%
Danny Namaso AUX	LE v AUX	0.14	0.19	13%	17%
Gessime Yassine STR	STR v PSG	0.10	0.33	10%	28%
Jonathan Clauss NIC	LYO v NIC	0.08	0.26	8%	23%
Cristian Cásseres Jr. TOU	LMF v TOU	0.04	0.41	4%	34%
Emerson MAR	ANG v MAR	0.03	0.35	3%	29%

Season outlook — 20,000 simulated seasons

Paris Saint Germain53%
Monaco14%
Lille12%
Lens8%
Lyon8%
Paris Fc4%

Proportional breakdown — 6 categories totalling 0.8839999999999999.
Category	Value	Share
Paris Saint Germain	0.469	53.1%
Monaco	0.123	13.9%
Lille	0.107	12.1%
Lens	0.075	8.5%
Lyon	0.071	8.0%
Paris Fc	0.039	4.4%

Share of simulated seasons each club finishes top. as of 2026-10-15

Bar chart — 6 bars.
Label	Value	Highlighted
Troyes	65%	yes
Le Havre	37%	no
Angers	33%	no
Le Mans	19%	no
Auxerre	16%	no
Nice	9%	no

The bottom 2 go down directly; the club above them plays off to stay up, which is not counted here. as of 2026-10-15

Updated 15 Oct 2026