Match spotlight · xGB Core · Fri 4 Sept, 20:05

59%PSG WIN

PSG vs Monaco

Attack index 83 meets defense index 59 — the biggest mismatch of the week. Play this fixture 10,000 times and expect PSG winning 5930, the draw 2170, MON winning 1900.

Over 2.5 goals · 63%Full assessment →

PSG WIN59%DRAW22%MON WIN19%

2–1

Likeliest PSG win

Called 5 of 12finished matches this round — every call frozen before kickoff, graded at full time

Gameweek 3 board — all assessments

Draw watchTOU—LIL30%LE—BRE27%ANG—REN26%the week's likeliest stalemates

LYO — AUXFri 18:00

H 60%D 23%A 18%

PSG — MONFri 20:05

H 59%D 22%A 19%

NIC — LMFSat 19:45

H 53%D 24%A 24%

LE — BRESat 19:45

H 34%D 27%A 39%

LEN — LORSat 16:15

H 69%D 18%A 13%

ANG — RENSun 16:15

H 25%D 26%A 50%

MAR — PARSun 19:45

H 57%D 22%A 21%

TRO — STRSun 14:00

H 22%D 25%A 53%

Finished — graded

MON — MAR2–0

✓ calledgave this 42%

REN — LMF3–2

✓ calledgave this 59%

PAR — NIC3–0

✓ calledgave this 45%

LOR — TRO1–2

✗ missedgave this 13%

LYO — LE1–1

✗ missedgave this 23%

BRE — TOU2–2

✗ missedgave this 28%

AUX — ANG1–3

✗ missedgave this 24%

STR — LEN2–1

✗ missedgave this 27%

LIL — PSG2–2

✗ missedgave this 28%

PSG — REN0–0

✗ missedgave this 17%

LE — MON0–1

✓ calledgave this 51%

ANG — LIL0–2

✓ calledgave this 55%

Gameweek 4 — next up

Assessed already, before a ball is kicked. These re-price as this week’s results land.

Draw watchLE—ANG29%LOR—TOU28%AUX—NIC27%the week's likeliest stalemates

REN — MARFri 19:45

H 37%D 23%A 40%

STR — MONSat 16:15

H 35%D 25%A 40%

AUX — NICSat 19:45

H 38%D 27%A 35%

LOR — TOUSat 19:45

H 36%D 28%A 36%

PAR — LYOSat 19:45

H 38%D 26%A 36%

LE — ANGSat 19:45

H 45%D 29%A 26%

LIL — TROSun 14:00

LMF — LENSun 16:15

H 15%D 19%A 66%

BRE — PSGSun 19:45

H 19%D 22%A 59%

Player projections — Gameweek 4


Esteban Lepaul REN	REN v MAR	0.44	0.17	35%	16%
Hákon Haraldsson LIL	LIL v TRO	0.37	0.34	31%	29%
Corentin Tolisso LYO	PAR v LYO	0.37	0.17	31%	16%
Matias Fernandez-Pardo LIL	LIL v TRO	0.36	0.17	31%	16%
Olivier Giroud LIL	LIL v TRO	0.36	0.07	30%	7%
Mbwana Samatta LE	LE v ANG	0.34	0.18	29%	17%
Florian Thauvin LEN	LMF v LEN	0.32	0.36	28%	30%
Folarin Balogun MON	STR v MON	0.30	0.07	26%	7%
Lassine Sinayoko AUX	AUX v NIC	0.29	0.12	25%	11%
Abdallah Sima LEN	LMF v LEN	0.27	0.14	24%	13%
Amine Gouiri MAR	REN v MAR	0.26	0.29	23%	25%
Issa Soumaré LE	LE v ANG	0.25	0.12	22%	11%
Felix Correia LIL	LIL v TRO	0.22	0.21	20%	19%
Sofiane Diop NIC	AUX v NIC	0.22	0.17	20%	15%
Sebastian Nanasi STR	STR v MON	0.21	0.16	19%	15%
Matthieu Udol LEN	LMF v LEN	0.20	0.32	18%	27%
Danny Namaso AUX	AUX v NIC	0.19	0.19	17%	17%
Julio Enciso STR	STR v MON	0.18	0.22	16%	20%
Endrick LYO	PAR v LYO	0.17	0.19	16%	17%
Jonathan Clauss NIC	AUX v NIC	0.05	0.31	5%	27%

Today’s headlines

Lens win — The round's most lopsided assessment: LEN vs LOR.

TOU vs LIL — No outcome reaches even money — the round's tightest call.

TOU–LIL stalemate — The round's likeliest draw — a first-class outcome here.

Most likely to score or assist


Corentin Tolisso LYO	LYO v AUX	0.50	0.23	39%	21%
Esteban Lepaul REN	ANG v REN	0.43	0.17	35%	15%
Mbwana Samatta LE	LE v BRE	0.33	0.18	28%	16%
Florian Thauvin LEN	LEN v LOR	0.32	0.35	27%	30%
Sofiane Diop NIC	NIC v LMF	0.32	0.24	27%	21%
Amine Gouiri MAR	MAR v PAR	0.30	0.34	26%	29%
Abdallah Sima LEN	LEN v LOR	0.27	0.14	23%	13%
Ludovic Ajorque BRE	LE v BRE	0.26	0.18	23%	17%
Issa Soumaré LE	LE v BRE	0.24	0.11	21%	11%
Endrick LYO	LYO v AUX	0.23	0.25	21%	23%
Kamory Doumbia BRE	LE v BRE	0.23	0.16	21%	15%
Sebastian Nanasi STR	TRO v STR	0.23	0.18	21%	17%
Hákon Haraldsson LIL	TOU v LIL	0.22	0.20	20%	18%
Mason Greenwood MAR	MAR v PAR	0.21	0.17	19%	16%
Martial Godo STR	TRO v STR	0.20	0.15	19%	14%
Matthieu Udol LEN	LEN v LOR	0.20	0.32	18%	27%
Julio Enciso STR	TRO v STR	0.20	0.24	18%	22%
Amine Sbaï ANG	ANG v REN	0.18	0.21	16%	19%
Jonathan Clauss NIC	NIC v LMF	0.07	0.44	7%	36%
Emerson MAR	MAR v PAR	0.02	0.36	2%	30%

What we said last time

Gameweek 2: played, with no calls of ours on record to judge

LOR — TRO1–2

no call on record

REN — LE-3–2

no call on record

STR — LEN2–1

no call on record

BRE — TOU2–2

no call on record

AUX — ANG1–3

no call on record

LYO — LE-1–1

no call on record

MON — MAR2–0

no call on record

PAR — NIC3–0

no call on record

LIL — PAR2–2

no call on record

Season outlook — 20,000 simulated seasons

Paris Saint Germain35%
Lens26%
Monaco15%
Marseille11%
Lille8%
Lyon4%

Proportional breakdown — 6 categories totalling 0.897.
Category	Value	Share
Paris Saint Germain	0.315	35.1%
Lens	0.237	26.4%
Monaco	0.133	14.8%
Marseille	0.1	11.1%
Lille	0.076	8.5%
Lyon	0.036	4.0%

Share of simulated seasons each club finishes top. as of 2026-08-31

Bar chart — 6 bars.
Label	Value	Highlighted
Troyes	39%	no
Le Mans	32%	no
Angers	30%	no
Le Havre	25%	no
Auxerre	22%	no
Nice	14%	no

The bottom 2 go down directly; the club above them plays off to stay up, which is not counted here. as of 2026-08-31