Match spotlight · xGB Core · Sat 17 Oct, 17:00

60%INT WIN

Bologna vs Inter

The model's marquee match: 17% home, 60% away. Play this fixture 10,000 times and expect BOL winning 1660, the draw 2350, INT winning 5990.

Over 2.5 goals · 59%Full assessment →

BOL WIN17%DRAW24%INT WIN60%

1–2

Likeliest INT win

Gameweek 7 board — all assessments

Next round on Fri 16 Oct

Draw watchPAS—TOR34%MON—CAG30%JUV—LAZ30%the week's likeliest stalemates

MIL — ATASun 17:00

H 43%D 29%A 28%

UDI — LECSun 11:30

H 53%D 29%A 18%

FIO — COMSun 14:00

H 19%D 27%A 54%

JUV — LAZSun 19:45

H 53%D 30%A 18%

VEN — NAPSat 14:00

MON — CAGMon 17:30

H 28%D 30%A 42%

FRO — SASFri 19:45

H 36%D 27%A 36%

PAS — TORMon 19:45

H 30%D 34%A 36%

ROM — GENSat 19:45

Finished — graded

TOR — UDI2–1

✓ calledgave this 37%

LEC — BOL1–2

✓ calledgave this 49%

GEN — FIO2–1

✗ missedgave this 34%

NAP — FRO3–0

✓ calledgave this 61%

ATA — VEN3–1

✓ calledgave this 74%

CAG — JUV1–1

✗ missedgave this 29%

INT — PAS3–0

✓ calledgave this 82%

SAS — MIL1–1

✗ missedgave this 27%

COM — ROM0–0

✗ missedgave this 29%

LAZ — MON3–1

✓ calledgave this 61%

Gameweek 8 — next up

Assessed already, before a ball is kicked. These re-price as this week’s results land.

Draw watchCAG—BOL33%NAP—ROM32%LAZ—PAS30%the week's likeliest stalemates

TOR — MONFri 19:45

H 52%D 27%A 21%

CAG — BOLSat 14:00

H 30%D 33%A 37%

COM — SASSat 14:00

H 64%D 23%A 14%

NAP — ROMSat 17:00

H 32%D 32%A 36%

LAZ — PASSat 19:45

H 56%D 30%A 14%

INT — FIOSun 11:30

ATA — FROSun 14:00

H 61%D 23%A 16%

GEN — VENSun 14:00

H 55%D 28%A 18%

LEC — JUVSun 17:00

UDI — MILSun 19:45

H 23%D 28%A 49%

Today’s headlines

Roma win — The round's most lopsided assessment: ROM vs GEN.

PAS vs TOR — No outcome reaches even money — the round's tightest call.

PAS–TOR stalemate — The round's likeliest draw — a first-class outcome here.

No player projections for Serie A. The data is all here — every appearance, with minutes, positions and cards. A player model has been measured on this league and its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read, so we leave the list out rather than print numbers we have already watched miss.

Season outlook — 20,000 simulated seasons

Inter61%
Roma24%
Juventus5%
Como4%
Napoli3%
Ac Milan2%

Proportional breakdown — 6 categories totalling 0.9880000000000001.
Category	Value	Share
Inter	0.605	61.2%
Roma	0.238	24.1%
Juventus	0.054	5.5%
Como	0.042	4.3%
Napoli	0.027	2.7%
Ac Milan	0.022	2.2%

Share of simulated seasons each club finishes top. as of 2026-10-15

Bar chart — 6 bars.
Label	Value	Highlighted
Venezia	90%	yes
Monza	60%	yes
Lecce	51%	yes
Parma	35%	no
Genoa	19%	no
Fiorentina	14%	no

The bottom of a table turns on a handful of results between sides rated almost identically — read the spread, not the order. as of 2026-10-15

Updated 15 Oct 2026