Match spotlight · xGB Core · Mon 31 Aug, 20:30
80%BAR WIN
Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano
Attack index 98 meets defense index 44 — the biggest mismatch of the week. Play this fixture 10,000 times and expect BAR winning 7990, the draw 1250, RAY winning 760.
Over 2.5 goals · 74%Full assessment →
BAR WIN80%DRAW13%RAY WIN8%
2–0
Likeliest BAR win
Called 11 of 20finished matches this round — every call frozen before kickoff, graded at full time
Gameweek 3 board — all assessments
Finished — graded
CEL — ATH0–2
✗ missedgave this 28%
DEP — VAL3–1
✗ missedgave this 32%
RMA — MAL4–0
✓ calledgave this 82%
SEV — ATM1–3
✓ calledgave this 40%
RSO — ESP2–1
✓ calledgave this 53%
LEV — REA5–2
✓ calledgave this 38%
ALA — VIL1–0
✓ calledgave this 40%
RAC — ELC3–2
✓ calledgave this 42%
BAR — ATH2–0
✓ calledgave this 76%
CEL — OSA1–2
✗ missedgave this 24%
RMA — RSO4–1
✓ calledgave this 73%
VAL — REA0–1
✗ missedgave this 32%
MAL — DEP1–1
✗ missedgave this 28%
OSA — LEV0–0
✗ missedgave this 24%
ELC — BAR0–5
✓ calledgave this 64%
GET — RAC1–0
✓ calledgave this 46%
ATM — VIL2–2
✗ missedgave this 22%
ESP — RMA1–2
✓ calledgave this 52%
VAL — CEL0–0
✗ missedgave this 26%
ATH — SEV1–3
✗ missedgave this 17%
Gameweek 4 — next up
Assessed already, before a ball is kicked. These re-price as this week’s results land.
REA — RMAFri 20:00
H 30%D 24%A 46%
ATH — ATMSat 15:15
H 44%D 25%A 31%
RAY — RACSat 17:30
H 39%D 25%A 36%
VIL — DEPSat 20:00
H 78%D 14%A 8%
VAL — BARSun 15:15
H 19%D 21%A 60%
ALA — OSASun 17:30
H 47%D 28%A 25%
MAL — LEVSun 17:30
H 20%D 27%A 54%
ESP — SEVSun 20:00
H 47%D 28%A 26%
GET — CELMon 18:00
H 37%D 34%A 30%
ELC — RSOMon 20:30
H 40%D 24%A 36%
Today’s headlines
No player projections for La Liga. The data is all here — every appearance, with minutes, positions and cards. A player model has been measured on this league and its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read, so we leave the list out rather than print numbers we have already watched miss.
What we said last time
Gameweek 2: played, with no calls of ours on record to judge
REA — REA1–0
no call on record
ESP — REA1–2
no call on record
ELC — BAR0–5
no call on record
MAL — DEP1–1
no call on record
RAY — ALA1–1
no call on record
GET — RAC1–0
no call on record
OSA — LEV0–0
no call on record
ATL — VIL2–2
no call on record
VAL — CEL0–0
no call on record
ATH — SEV1–3
no call on record
Season outlook — 20,000 simulated seasons
- Barcelona58%
- Real Madrid30%
- Villarreal4%
- Atletico Madrid4%
- Racing Santander2%
- Real Betis2%