La Liga · 2026/27

Season forecast

The 352 remaining fixtures played out 20,000 times, drawing from the same engine that prices this league's matchday. Each simulated season also draws a slightly different set of team ratings — because we do not know exactly how good anyone is, and because sides genuinely become different teams over a season.

This forecast moves. It is re-run every time results land, so it reads the season rather than the summer. Since 2026-08-30 the biggest changes are Real Madrid +1% on the title.

These ranges are calibrated. Tested on 5 seasons this engine never tuned on, 92% of clubs finished inside their stated 90% band — against 88% for a version that treated preseason ratings as though they were known exactly, and was confidently wrong about how much a season can move.

Expected points

Bar chart — 20 bars.
Label	Value	Highlighted
Barcelona	85	no
Real Madrid	78	no
Villarreal	64	no
Atletico Madrid	62	no
Racing Santander	60	no
Real Betis	59	no
Alaves	58	no
Athletic Club	54	no
Osasuna	53	no
Real Sociedad	52	no
Levante	51	no
Rayo Vallecano	50	no
Valencia	47	no
Sevilla	46	no
Celta Vigo	46	no
Espanyol	45	no
Getafe	43	no
Elche	41	no
Deportivo	35	no
Malaga	24	no

The average finish across every simulated season. The 90% range in the table below matters more than this number — those ranges overlap heavily, which is the true picture of a league nobody can call in August. n = 20,000 · as of 2026-08-31

Title race

Barcelona58%
Real Madrid30%
Villarreal4%
Atletico Madrid4%
Racing Santander2%
Real Betis2%

Outcome distribution — 100% stacked bar across 6 categories.
Category	Value	Share
Barcelona	0.556	57.7%
Real Madrid	0.289	30.0%
Villarreal	0.043	4.5%
Atletico Madrid	0.037	3.8%
Racing Santander	0.021	2.2%
Real Betis	0.018	1.9%

Share of simulated seasons each club finished top. Clubs under 1% are omitted. n = 20,000 · as of 2026-08-31

Relegation risk

Bar chart — 8 bars.
Label	Value	Highlighted
Malaga	89%	yes
Deportivo	51%	yes
Elche	30%	no
Getafe	21%	no
Espanyol	19%	no
Celta Vigo	18%	no
Valencia	15%	no
Sevilla	13%	no

Relegation is the hardest of these calls, not the easiest — the bottom of a table is decided by a handful of results between sides the model rates almost identically. Read the spread rather than the order. n = 20,000 · as of 2026-08-31

Full projection

Club	Title	Since last week	Top 4	Relegation	Points	90% range
Barcelona	55.6%	—	95%	0%	85	66–102
Real Madrid	28.9%	+1%	84%	0%	78	60–96
Villarreal	4.3%	—	43%	1%	64	43–83
Atletico Madrid	3.7%	—	33%	1%	62	42–82
Racing Santander	2.1%	—	29%	2%	60	40–81
Real Betis	1.8%	—	22%	2%	59	41–77
Alaves	1.1%	—	22%	2%	58	40–77
Athletic Club	0.6%	—	14%	4%	54	36–73
Osasuna	0.5%	—	13%	6%	53	34–73
Real Sociedad	0.4%	—	11%	9%	52	31–72
Levante	0.4%	—	9%	8%	51	32–70
Rayo Vallecano	0.2%	—	9%	11%	50	30–70
Valencia	0.1%	—	4%	15%	47	28–65
Sevilla	0.1%	—	3%	13%	46	30–65
Celta Vigo	0.1%	—	4%	18%	46	27–65
Espanyol	0.1%	—	3%	19%	45	27–63
Getafe	0.0%	—	1%	21%	43	27–60
Elche	0.0%	—	1%	30%	41	24–60
Deportivo	0.0%	—	0%	51%	35	20–53
Malaga	0.0%	—	0%	89%	24	12–38

352 matches simulated from 2026-08-31 · rating spread σ=0.2 · 11 takes archived this season