La Liga · 2026/27

Season forecast

The 302 remaining fixtures played out 20,000 times, drawing from the same engine that prices this league's matchday. Each simulated season also draws a slightly different set of team ratings — because we do not know exactly how good anyone is, and because sides genuinely become different teams over a season.

This forecast moves. It is re-run every time results land, so it reads the season rather than the summer. Nothing moved by more than a point since 2026-10-13 — a quiet week is a real result too.

These ranges are calibrated. Tested on 5 seasons this engine never tuned on, 92% of clubs finished inside their stated 90% band — against 88% for a version that treated preseason ratings as though they were known exactly, and was confidently wrong about how much a season can move.

Expected points

Bar chart — 20 bars.
Label	Value	Highlighted
Barcelona	93	no
Real Madrid	80	no
Atletico Madrid	72	no
Real Betis	67	no
Villarreal	62	no
Athletic Club	59	no
Alaves	53	no
Real Sociedad	52	no
Sevilla	52	no
Rayo Vallecano	50	no
Levante	47	no
Deportivo	46	no
Osasuna	46	no
Celta Vigo	45	no
Espanyol	43	no
Valencia	42	no
Elche	41	no
Getafe	38	no
Racing Santander	36	no
Malaga	24	no

The average finish across every simulated season. The 90% range in the table below matters more than this number — those ranges overlap heavily, which is the true picture of a league nobody can call in August. n = 20,000 · as of 2026-10-15

Title race

Barcelona80%
Real Madrid16%
Atletico Madrid3%
Real Betis2%

Outcome distribution — 100% stacked bar across 4 categories.
Category	Value	Share
Barcelona	0.788	79.5%
Real Madrid	0.154	15.5%
Atletico Madrid	0.032	3.2%
Real Betis	0.017	1.7%

Share of simulated seasons each club finished top. Clubs under 1% are omitted. n = 20,000 · as of 2026-10-15

Relegation risk

Bar chart — 8 bars.
Label	Value	Highlighted
Malaga	90%	yes
Racing Santander	46%	no
Getafe	32%	no
Elche	25%	no
Valencia	22%	no
Espanyol	16%	no
Levante	14%	no
Deportivo	13%	no

Relegation is the hardest of these calls, not the easiest — the bottom of a table is decided by a handful of results between sides the model rates almost identically. Read the spread rather than the order. n = 20,000 · as of 2026-10-15

Full projection

Club	Title	Since last week	Top 4	Relegation	Points	90% range
Barcelona	78.8%	—	99%	0%	93	77–107
Real Madrid	15.4%	—	92%	0%	80	64–95
Atletico Madrid	3.2%	—	71%	0%	72	56–88
Real Betis	1.7%	—	47%	0%	67	50–84
Villarreal	0.4%	—	30%	1%	62	44–77
Athletic Club	0.3%	—	22%	1%	59	41–76
Alaves	0.0%	—	7%	2%	53	37–68
Real Sociedad	0.1%	—	8%	4%	52	36–69
Sevilla	0.0%	—	5%	4%	52	36–67
Rayo Vallecano	0.0%	—	5%	7%	50	33–67
Levante	0.0%	—	3%	14%	47	29–65
Deportivo	0.0%	—	3%	13%	46	29–64
Osasuna	0.0%	—	2%	12%	46	31–63
Celta Vigo	0.0%	—	2%	12%	45	30–63
Espanyol	0.0%	—	1%	16%	43	28–59
Valencia	0.0%	—	1%	22%	42	26–59
Elche	0.0%	—	1%	25%	41	25–59
Getafe	0.0%	—	0%	32%	38	25–52
Racing Santander	0.0%	—	0%	46%	36	22–53
Malaga	0.0%	—	0%	90%	24	13–37

302 matches simulated from 2026-10-15 · rating spread σ=0.2 · 51 takes archived this season