The 361 remaining fixtures played out 20,000 times, drawing from the same engine that prices this league's matchday. Each simulated season also draws a slightly different set of team ratings — because we do not know exactly how good anyone is, and because sides genuinely become different teams over a season.
This forecast moves. It is re-run every time results land, so it reads the season rather than the summer. Since 2026-08-30 the biggest changes are Brighton−1% on the title.
These ranges are calibrated. Tested on 5 seasons this engine never tuned on, 93% of clubs finished inside their stated 90% band — against 71% for a version that treated preseason ratings as though they were known exactly, and was confidently wrong about how much a season can move.
Expected points
Bar chart — 20 bars.
Label
Value
Highlighted
Arsenal
78
no
Man City
76
no
Chelsea
64
no
Man United
62
no
Brentford
62
no
Liverpool
61
no
Brighton
60
no
Bournemouth
58
no
Leeds
56
no
Newcastle
55
no
Crystal Palace
52
no
Aston Villa
52
no
Everton
51
no
Nottingham Forest
50
no
Sunderland
44
no
Fulham
43
no
Tottenham
41
no
Ipswich
33
no
Hull
32
no
Coventry
26
no
The average finish across every simulated season. The 90% range in the table below matters more than this number — those ranges overlap heavily, which is the true picture of a league nobody can call in August. n = 20,000 · as of 2026-08-31
Title race
Arsenal41%
Man City31%
Brentford8%
Chelsea8%
Man United7%
Liverpool7%
Outcome distribution — 100% stacked bar across 6 categories.
Category
Value
Share
Arsenal
0.3319
40.5%
Man City
0.2523
30.8%
Brentford
0.0627
7.7%
Chelsea
0.06155
7.5%
Man United
0.0553
6.8%
Liverpool
0.0552
6.7%
Share of simulated seasons each club finished top. Clubs under 1% are omitted. n = 20,000 · as of 2026-08-31
Relegation risk
Bar chart — 8 bars.
Label
Value
Highlighted
Coventry
83%
yes
Hull
54%
yes
Ipswich
51%
yes
Tottenham
24%
no
Fulham
21%
no
Sunderland
16%
no
Nottingham Forest
10%
no
Aston Villa
8%
no
Relegation is the hardest of these calls, not the easiest: across ten preseason forecasts the model averaged 1.3 of the 3 relegated clubs, against 2.8 of the top 4. In 2025/26 its top three were Burnley, Leeds and West Ham — two of the three that went down, with Wolves the miss. All three did sit inside its top four candidates, which is a fairer way to read it than counting exact hits. n = 20,000 · as of 2026-08-31
Full projection
Club
Title
Since last week
Top 4
Relegation
Points
90% range
Arsenal
33.2%
—
76%
0%
78
57–98
Man City
25.2%
—
71%
0%
76
55–95
Chelsea
6.2%
+1%
37%
1%
64
41–86
Man United
5.5%
—
31%
2%
62
40–84
Brentford
6.3%
—
29%
2%
62
37–86
Liverpool
5.5%
—
28%
2%
61
38–85
Brighton
5.4%
−1%
26%
1%
60
39–85
Bournemouth
2.5%
—
21%
3%
58
36–79
Leeds
2.5%
−1%
16%
3%
56
36–79
Newcastle
2.6%
—
15%
5%
55
33–78
Crystal Palace
0.9%
—
10%
7%
52
30–74
Aston Villa
1.2%
—
11%
8%
52
29–75
Everton
0.8%
—
8%
8%
51
29–73
Nottingham Forest
1.1%
—
9%
10%
50
28–73
Sunderland
0.2%
—
3%
16%
44
25–67
Fulham
0.4%
—
5%
21%
43
22–68
Tottenham
0.1%
—
2%
24%
41
22–63
Ipswich
0.4%
—
1%
51%
33
14–57
Hull
0.0%
—
0%
54%
32
21–44
Coventry
0.0%
—
0%
83%
26
15–38
361 matches simulated from 2026-08-31 · rating spread σ=0.25 · 10 takes archived this season