The 320 remaining fixtures played out 20,000 times, drawing from the same engine that prices this league's matchday. Each simulated season also draws a slightly different set of team ratings — because we do not know exactly how good anyone is, and because sides genuinely become different teams over a season.
This forecast moves. It is re-run every time results land, so it reads the season rather than the summer. Nothing moved by more than a point since 2026-10-13 — a quiet week is a real result too.
These ranges are calibrated. Tested on 5 seasons this engine never tuned on, 93% of clubs finished inside their stated 90% band — against 71% for a version that treated preseason ratings as though they were known exactly, and was confidently wrong about how much a season can move.
Expected points
Bar chart — 20 bars.
Label
Value
Highlighted
Arsenal
79
no
Man City
78
no
Brighton
66
no
Liverpool
58
no
Brentford
57
no
Leeds
57
no
Man United
57
no
Chelsea
56
no
Bournemouth
52
no
Everton
51
no
Newcastle
49
no
Nottingham Forest
48
no
Crystal Palace
47
no
Aston Villa
47
no
Hull
44
no
Sunderland
43
no
Tottenham
41
no
Fulham
40
no
Coventry
40
no
Ipswich
38
no
The average finish across every simulated season. The 90% range in the table below matters more than this number — those ranges overlap heavily, which is the true picture of a league nobody can call in August. n = 20,000 · as of 2026-10-15
Title race
Arsenal42%
Man City39%
Brighton10%
Brentford4%
Liverpool3%
Man United3%
Outcome distribution — 100% stacked bar across 6 categories.
Category
Value
Share
Arsenal
0.38525
42.2%
Man City
0.35265
38.6%
Brighton
0.08935
9.8%
Brentford
0.03195
3.5%
Liverpool
0.02985
3.3%
Man United
0.0237
2.6%
Share of simulated seasons each club finished top. Clubs under 1% are omitted. n = 20,000 · as of 2026-10-15
Relegation risk
Bar chart — 8 bars.
Label
Value
Highlighted
Ipswich
40%
no
Coventry
38%
no
Fulham
33%
no
Tottenham
31%
no
Sunderland
26%
no
Hull
23%
no
Crystal Palace
20%
no
Aston Villa
18%
no
Relegation is the hardest of these calls, not the easiest: across ten preseason forecasts the model averaged 1.3 of the 3 relegated clubs, against 2.8 of the top 4. In 2025/26 its top three were Burnley, Leeds and West Ham — two of the three that went down, with Wolves the miss. All three did sit inside its top four candidates, which is a fairer way to read it than counting exact hits. n = 20,000 · as of 2026-10-15
Full projection
Club
Title
Since last week
Top 4
Relegation
Points
90% range
Arsenal
38.5%
—
85%
0%
79
58–96
Man City
35.3%
—
81%
0%
78
57–97
Brighton
8.9%
—
49%
2%
66
43–87
Liverpool
3.0%
—
25%
4%
58
37–80
Brentford
3.2%
—
25%
5%
57
36–79
Leeds
2.2%
—
21%
4%
57
37–78
Man United
2.4%
—
23%
4%
57
36–77
Chelsea
2.2%
—
21%
4%
56
36–78
Bournemouth
0.7%
—
12%
9%
52
32–72
Everton
0.9%
—
12%
10%
51
31–72
Newcastle
1.2%
—
12%
15%
49
28–73
Nottingham Forest
0.6%
—
8%
16%
48
27–69
Crystal Palace
0.2%
—
7%
20%
47
25–69
Aston Villa
0.3%
—
6%
18%
47
26–67
Hull
0.1%
—
4%
23%
44
27–65
Sunderland
0.1%
—
3%
26%
43
24–63
Tottenham
0.0%
—
1%
31%
41
22–60
Fulham
0.2%
—
2%
33%
40
21–61
Coventry
0.0%
—
2%
38%
40
22–60
Ipswich
0.0%
—
1%
40%
38
22–57
320 matches simulated from 2026-10-15 · rating spread σ=0.25 · 50 takes archived this season