The 261 remaining fixtures played out 20,000 times, drawing from the same engine that prices this league's matchday. Each simulated season also draws a slightly different set of team ratings — because we do not know exactly how good anyone is, and because sides genuinely become different teams over a season.
This forecast moves. It is re-run every time results land, so it reads the season rather than the summer. Nothing moved by more than a point since 2026-10-13 — a quiet week is a real result too.
These ranges are calibrated. Tested on 5 seasons this engine never tuned on, 93% of clubs finished inside their stated 90% band — against 81% for a version that treated preseason ratings as though they were known exactly, and was confidently wrong about how much a season can move.
Expected points
Bar chart — 18 bars.
Label
Value
Highlighted
Bayern Munich
77
no
Borussia Dortmund
66
no
Bayer Leverkusen
64
no
Rb Leipzig
59
no
Vfb Stuttgart
54
no
Freiburg
53
no
Mainz 05
49
no
Eintracht Frankfurt
45
no
Augsburg
44
no
Fc Cologne
44
no
Werder Bremen
43
no
Hoffenheim
42
no
Elversberg
42
no
Hamburger Sv
37
no
Union Berlin
36
no
Schalke 04
34
no
Borussia Monchengladbach
34
no
Paderborn
30
no
The average finish across every simulated season. The 90% range in the table below matters more than this number — those ranges overlap heavily, which is the true picture of a league nobody can call in August. n = 20,000 · as of 2026-10-15
Title race
Bayern Munich67%
Borussia Dortmund15%
Bayer Leverkusen10%
Rb Leipzig4%
Vfb Stuttgart3%
Freiburg1%
Outcome distribution — 100% stacked bar across 6 categories.
Category
Value
Share
Bayern Munich
0.663
67.4%
Borussia Dortmund
0.147
14.9%
Bayer Leverkusen
0.098
10.0%
Rb Leipzig
0.038
3.9%
Vfb Stuttgart
0.026
2.6%
Freiburg
0.012
1.2%
Share of simulated seasons each club finished top. Clubs under 1% are omitted. n = 20,000 · as of 2026-10-15
Bottom of the table
Bar chart — 8 bars.
Label
Value
Highlighted
Paderborn
47%
no
Borussia Monchengladbach
31%
no
Schalke 04
29%
no
Union Berlin
23%
no
Hamburger Sv
21%
no
Elversberg
9%
no
Hoffenheim
9%
no
Fc Cologne
7%
no
Relegation is the hardest of these calls, not the easiest — the bottom of a table is decided by a handful of results between sides the model rates almost identically. Read the spread rather than the order. This is the chance of finishing in the bottom 2, who go down directly. The club one place above them plays a two-legged playoff to stay up, which is not counted here. n = 20,000 · as of 2026-10-15
Full projection
Club
Title
Since last week
Top 4
Bottom 2
Points
90% range
Bayern Munich
66.3%
—
96%
0%
77
61–91
Borussia Dortmund
14.7%
—
73%
0%
66
49–82
Bayer Leverkusen
9.8%
—
67%
0%
64
47–79
Rb Leipzig
3.8%
—
49%
0%
59
42–75
Vfb Stuttgart
2.6%
—
33%
2%
54
35–73
Freiburg
1.2%
—
25%
1%
53
37–69
Mainz 05
0.8%
—
17%
3%
49
31–67
Eintracht Frankfurt
0.2%
—
8%
6%
45
29–62
Augsburg
0.2%
—
7%
6%
44
28–61
Fc Cologne
0.1%
—
6%
7%
44
28–60
Werder Bremen
0.2%
—
4%
7%
43
28–59
Hoffenheim
0.2%
—
6%
9%
42
26–60
Elversberg
0.0%
—
4%
9%
42
26–58
Hamburger Sv
0.0%
—
1%
21%
37
22–53
Union Berlin
0.0%
—
1%
23%
36
22–52
Schalke 04
0.0%
—
1%
29%
34
19–50
Borussia Monchengladbach
0.0%
—
1%
31%
34
18–51
Paderborn
0.0%
—
0%
47%
30
17–44
261 matches simulated from 2026-10-15 · rating spread σ=0.2 · 51 takes archived this season