The 297 remaining fixtures played out 20,000 times, drawing from the same engine that prices this league's matchday. Each simulated season also draws a slightly different set of team ratings — because we do not know exactly how good anyone is, and because sides genuinely become different teams over a season.
This forecast moves. It is re-run every time results land, so it reads the season rather than the summer. Nothing moved by more than a point since 2026-08-30 — a quiet week is a real result too.
These ranges are calibrated. Tested on 5 seasons this engine never tuned on, 93% of clubs finished inside their stated 90% band — against 81% for a version that treated preseason ratings as though they were known exactly, and was confidently wrong about how much a season can move.
Expected points
Bar chart — 18 bars.
Label
Value
Highlighted
Bayern Munich
81
no
Borussia Dortmund
65
no
Bayer Leverkusen
62
no
Rb Leipzig
60
no
Vfb Stuttgart
58
no
Eintracht Frankfurt
51
no
Mainz 05
51
no
Freiburg
49
no
Hoffenheim
49
no
Fc Cologne
46
no
Augsburg
44
no
Union Berlin
44
no
Borussia Monchengladbach
42
no
Werder Bremen
40
no
Hamburger Sv
39
no
Elversberg
30
no
Paderborn
28
no
Schalke 04
20
no
The average finish across every simulated season. The 90% range in the table below matters more than this number — those ranges overlap heavily, which is the true picture of a league nobody can call in August. n = 20,000 · as of 2026-08-31
Title race
Bayern Munich72%
Borussia Dortmund10%
Bayer Leverkusen7%
Rb Leipzig5%
Vfb Stuttgart3%
Mainz 051%
Outcome distribution — 100% stacked bar across 6 categories.
Category
Value
Share
Bayern Munich
0.699
72.4%
Borussia Dortmund
0.098
10.1%
Bayer Leverkusen
0.072
7.5%
Rb Leipzig
0.052
5.4%
Vfb Stuttgart
0.032
3.3%
Mainz 05
0.013
1.3%
Share of simulated seasons each club finished top. Clubs under 1% are omitted. n = 20,000 · as of 2026-08-31
Bottom of the table
Bar chart — 8 bars.
Label
Value
Highlighted
Schalke 04
80%
yes
Paderborn
41%
no
Elversberg
29%
no
Hamburger Sv
12%
no
Werder Bremen
8%
no
Borussia Monchengladbach
8%
no
Augsburg
4%
no
Union Berlin
4%
no
Relegation is the hardest of these calls, not the easiest — the bottom of a table is decided by a handful of results between sides the model rates almost identically. Read the spread rather than the order. This is the chance of finishing in the bottom 2, who go down directly. The club one place above them plays a two-legged playoff to stay up, which is not counted here. n = 20,000 · as of 2026-08-31
Full projection
Club
Title
Since last week
Top 4
Bottom 2
Points
90% range
Bayern Munich
69.9%
—
97%
0%
81
64–95
Borussia Dortmund
9.8%
—
62%
0%
65
46–82
Bayer Leverkusen
7.2%
—
55%
0%
62
44–80
Rb Leipzig
5.2%
—
46%
0%
60
41–79
Vfb Stuttgart
3.2%
—
41%
0%
58
39–77
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.2%
—
19%
1%
51
33–70
Mainz 05
1.3%
—
19%
2%
51
31–70
Freiburg
0.6%
—
14%
3%
49
29–67
Hoffenheim
0.7%
—
15%
3%
49
30–67
Fc Cologne
0.3%
—
9%
4%
46
28–65
Augsburg
0.1%
—
6%
4%
44
27–62
Union Berlin
0.2%
—
6%
4%
44
27–62
Borussia Monchengladbach
0.1%
—
5%
8%
42
24–61
Werder Bremen
0.0%
—
2%
8%
40
24–57
Hamburger Sv
0.0%
—
3%
12%
39
22–58
Elversberg
0.0%
—
0%
29%
30
19–42
Paderborn
0.0%
—
0%
41%
28
17–40
Schalke 04
0.0%
—
0%
80%
20
7–35
297 matches simulated from 2026-08-31 · rating spread σ=0.2 · 11 takes archived this season