Bundesliga · 2026/27 season
The justice table
updated 2026-10-15
Where each side would sit on the chances they created and conceded, rather than on the results they got. Gap = points − xPts (deserved points): green is running hot, red is owed. On matchdays, positions update within the hour of each full time.
Regression watch:Hoffenheim -3.6Gladbach -3.3Augsburg +3.1Werder Bremen +3.0
| Team | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freiburg | 5 | 13 | 11.3 | +1.7 | 2 | 10.3 | 4.4 | +3.7 | +0.4 |
| 2 | Dortmund | 5 | 13 | 10.6 | +2.4 | 4 | 11.2 | 5.1 | -0.2 | +1.1 |
| 3 | Bayern | 5 | 11 | 13.7 | -2.7 | 1 | 17.9 | 5.0 | -1.9 | +1.0 |
| 4 | Leverkusen | 5 | 10 | 11.2 | -1.2 | 3 | 12.7 | 5.6 | +1.3 | -2.4 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 5 | 9 | 10.6 | -1.6 | 5 | 13.5 | 7.1 | +1.5 | +2.1 |
| 6 | Augsburg | 5 | 8 | 4.9 | +3.1 | 12 | 10.5 | 13.1 | +2.5 | +5.1 |
| 7 | Werder Bremen | 5 | 8 | 5.0 | +3.0 | 11 | 6.1 | 8.9 | +3.9 | -1.1 |
| 8 | Mainz 05 | 5 | 7 | 9.7 | -2.7 | 6 | 12.7 | 8.5 | +0.3 | -1.5 |
| 9 | Elversberg | 5 | 7 | 4.3 | +2.7 | 16 | 6.5 | 11.1 | +1.5 | +3.1 |
| 10 | Köln | 5 | 7 | 7.5 | -0.5 | 7 | 10.5 | 9.7 | -2.5 | -0.3 |
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 6 | 5.2 | +0.8 | 10 | 10.7 | 14.1 | -2.7 | +5.1 |
| 12 | Hamburger SV | 5 | 6 | 4.8 | +1.2 | 13 | 5.5 | 10.2 | -0.5 | -4.8 |
| 13 | Schalke 04 | 5 | 5 | 4.5 | +0.5 | 14 | 7.0 | 11.9 | -3.0 | +5.9 |
| 14 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 5 | 5.4 | -0.4 | 9 | 10.8 | 13.6 | -1.8 | -2.4 |
| 15 | Paderborn | 5 | 4 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 17 | 5.2 | 10.1 | -2.2 | +3.1 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 5 | 4 | 4.4 | -0.4 | 15 | 6.2 | 13.1 | -1.2 | -3.9 |
| 17 | Hoffenheim | 5 | 3 | 6.6 | -3.6 | 8 | 9.6 | 9.9 | -0.6 | -3.1 |
| 18 | Gladbach | 5 | 0 | 3.3 | -3.3 | 18 | 8.5 | 14.0 | -1.5 | -4.0 |
18 clubs · sample: 45 matches this season. Points are the competition's official totals wherever it has seen the same matches we have, so a points deduction shows beside the club. Where the official table is a round ahead of our results, points are counted from those results instead.
What these columns mean
- xPts
- The points a club would average if its matches were replayed many times over, given the chances created and conceded in them. A club can win a game it would usually lose and bank three points the chances did not earn.
- Gap
- Points minus expected points. Positive means a club is ahead of what its chances have been worth. It measures what has already happened — it is not a forecast that the gap will close.
- xPos
- The league position implied by expected points. Read it next to the real position: the two rarely match, and the distance is the argument the table is making.
- xG / xGA
- Chance quality created, and chance quality conceded, across the season. The difference between them is the single number closest to "how good has this team actually been" — a club can be flattered by results for a long time, but not by both of these at once.
- Finishing / Keeping
- Goals scored minus the chance quality that produced them, and the same for the goalkeeper in reverse. Both are descriptions of what happened, not ratings of skill — at player level, finishing above expectation in one season has essentially no relationship with the next, and nothing here claims clubs are different.