Premier League · 2026/27 season
The justice table
updated 2026-10-15
Where each side would sit on the chances they created and conceded, rather than on the results they got. Gap = points − xPts (deserved points): green is running hot, red is owed. On matchdays, positions update within the hour of each full time.
Regression watch:Forest -6.3Man City +6.1Bournemouth -5.5Sunderland -4.7
| Team | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 6 | 18 | 11.9 | +6.1 | 2 | 12.6 | 7.9 | +3.4 | +2.9 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 6 | 15 | 12.0 | +3.0 | 1 | 11.7 | 6.7 | -1.7 | +1.7 |
| 3 | Brighton | 6 | 13 | 10.3 | +2.7 | 4 | 12.8 | 7.0 | +5.2 | +2.0 |
| 4 | Brentford | 6 | 10 | 9.5 | +0.5 | 6 | 11.8 | 9.3 | +0.2 | +3.3 |
| 5 | Everton | 6 | 10 | 9.9 | +0.1 | 5 | 11.1 | 8.7 | -3.1 | +3.7 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 6 | 10 | 7.6 | +2.4 | 14 | 7.8 | 10.2 | +7.2 | -2.8 |
| 7 | Leeds | 6 | 9 | 7.7 | +1.3 | 12 | 8.4 | 8.7 | -0.4 | +3.7 |
| 8 | Hull | 6 | 9 | 6.2 | +2.8 | 16 | 7.3 | 10.0 | +0.7 | +4.0 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 6 | 9 | 8.6 | +0.4 | 9 | 9.0 | 8.5 | -2.0 | +1.5 |
| 10 | Ipswich | 6 | 9 | 6.9 | +2.1 | 15 | 8.4 | 12.1 | +0.6 | +0.1 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 6 | 8 | 7.6 | +0.4 | 13 | 7.8 | 11.0 | +2.2 | -2.0 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 7 | 5.9 | +1.1 | 18 | 9.8 | 13.8 | -0.8 | +1.8 |
| 13 | Man United | 6 | 6 | 9.1 | -3.1 | 7 | 11.5 | 9.3 | -2.5 | +0.3 |
| 14 | Coventry | 6 | 6 | 5.4 | +0.6 | 20 | 6.6 | 10.8 | -1.6 | -0.2 |
| 15 | Forest | 6 | 5 | 11.3 | -6.3 | 3 | 12.2 | 7.3 | -7.2 | -0.7 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 6 | 5 | 5.9 | -0.9 | 19 | 6.8 | 12.1 | -0.8 | +1.1 |
| 17 | Sunderland | 6 | 4 | 8.7 | -4.7 | 8 | 10.9 | 10.5 | -4.9 | -1.5 |
| 18 | Bournemouth | 6 | 3 | 8.5 | -5.5 | 10 | 9.8 | 8.4 | -2.8 | -4.6 |
| 19 | Spurs | 6 | 3 | 7.7 | -4.7 | 11 | 7.9 | 10.1 | -4.9 | +1.1 |
| 20 | Fulham | 6 | 2 | 6.2 | -4.2 | 17 | 9.7 | 11.7 | -3.7 | +1.7 |
What these columns mean
- xPts
- The points a club would average if its matches were replayed many times over, given the chances created and conceded in them. A club can win a game it would usually lose and bank three points the chances did not earn.
- Gap
- Points minus expected points. Positive means a club is ahead of what its chances have been worth. It measures what has already happened — it is not a forecast that the gap will close.
- xPos
- The league position implied by expected points. Read it next to the real position: the two rarely match, and the distance is the argument the table is making.
- xG / xGA
- Chance quality created, and chance quality conceded, across the season. The difference between them is the single number closest to "how good has this team actually been" — a club can be flattered by results for a long time, but not by both of these at once.
- Finishing / Keeping
- Goals scored minus the chance quality that produced them, and the same for the goalkeeper in reverse. Both are descriptions of what happened, not ratings of skill — at player level, finishing above expectation in one season has essentially no relationship with the next, and nothing here claims clubs are different.