Premier League · 2026/27 season
The justice table
updated 2026-08-31
Where each side would sit on the chances they created and conceded, rather than on the results they got. Gap = points − xPts (deserved points): green is running hot, red is owed. On matchdays, positions update within the hour of each full time.
Regression watch:Hull +3.9Forest -3.0
| Team | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 2 | 6 | 5.4 | +0.6 | 1 | 5.0 | 1.6 | +1.0 | -0.4 |
| 2 | Hull | 2 | 6 | 2.1 | +3.9 | 13 | 2.0 | 3.0 | +1.0 | +3.0 |
| 3 | Chelsea | 2 | 6 | 5.1 | +0.9 | 2 | 3.9 | 1.5 | +3.1 | -3.5 |
| 4 | Brentford | 2 | 4 | 4.7 | -0.7 | 3 | 5.7 | 1.9 | -1.7 | +0.9 |
| 5 | Newcastle | 2 | 4 | 1.8 | +2.2 | 16 | 2.6 | 4.3 | +1.4 | +2.3 |
| 6 | Everton | 2 | 4 | 1.7 | +2.3 | 17 | 3.1 | 4.5 | -0.1 | +3.5 |
| 7 | Leeds | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | +2.0 | 14 | 1.6 | 2.3 | +0.4 | +1.3 |
| 8 | Brighton | 2 | 3 | 2.9 | +0.1 | 6 | 4.0 | 1.6 | +3.0 | -2.4 |
| 9 | Arsenal | 1 | 3 | 2.4 | +0.6 | 10 | 1.9 | 0.6 | +1.1 | +0.6 |
| 10 | Man United | 2 | 3 | 3.9 | -0.9 | 5 | 6.6 | 3.3 | -1.6 | -0.7 |
| 11 | Sunderland | 2 | 3 | 2.8 | +0.2 | 7 | 2.7 | 2.6 | -0.7 | +0.6 |
| 12 | Ipswich | 2 | 3 | 2.0 | +1.0 | 15 | 3.4 | 6.0 | +0.6 | 0.0 |
| 13 | Liverpool | 2 | 2 | 2.7 | -0.7 | 8 | 4.4 | 4.5 | -0.4 | +0.5 |
| 14 | Bournemouth | 2 | 1 | 2.1 | -1.1 | 11 | 3.0 | 4.1 | -1.0 | +1.1 |
| 15 | Forest | 2 | 1 | 4.0 | -3.0 | 4 | 3.5 | 1.7 | -1.5 | -1.3 |
| 16 | Fulham | 2 | 0 | 1.6 | -1.6 | 18 | 2.4 | 4.1 | -0.4 | +0.1 |
| 17 | Aston Villa | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 20 | 0.3 | 4.0 | -0.3 | 0.0 |
| 18 | Coventry | 2 | 0 | 2.4 | -2.4 | 9 | 1.7 | 2.3 | -1.7 | -1.7 |
| 19 | Crystal Palace | 2 | 0 | 2.1 | -2.1 | 12 | 3.2 | 4.0 | -2.2 | -2.0 |
| 20 | Spurs | 2 | 0 | 1.5 | -1.5 | 19 | 1.9 | 5.1 | -1.9 | +0.1 |
What these columns mean
- xPts
- The points a club would average if its matches were replayed many times over, given the chances created and conceded in them. A club can win a game it would usually lose and bank three points the chances did not earn.
- Gap
- Points minus expected points. Positive means a club is ahead of what its chances have been worth. It measures what has already happened — it is not a forecast that the gap will close.
- xPos
- The league position implied by expected points. Read it next to the real position: the two rarely match, and the distance is the argument the table is making.
- xG / xGA
- Chance quality created, and chance quality conceded, across the season. The difference between them is the single number closest to "how good has this team actually been" — a club can be flattered by results for a long time, but not by both of these at once.
- Finishing / Keeping
- Goals scored minus the chance quality that produced them, and the same for the goalkeeper in reverse. Both are descriptions of what happened, not ratings of skill — at player level, finishing above expectation in one season has essentially no relationship with the next, and nothing here claims clubs are different.