Serie A · 2026/27 season
The justice table
updated 2026-10-15
Where each side would sit on the chances they created and conceded, rather than on the results they got. Gap = points − xPts (deserved points): green is running hot, red is owed. On matchdays, positions update within the hour of each full time.
Regression watch:Cagliari +7.0Venezia -6.7Lazio +6.1Monza -5.5
| Team | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 6 | 16 | 14.4 | +1.6 | 1 | 18.5 | 7.9 | -0.5 | -0.1 |
| 2 | Lazio | 6 | 16 | 9.9 | +6.1 | 8 | 11.3 | 8.9 | -0.3 | +4.9 |
| 3 | Roma | 6 | 14 | 12.9 | +1.1 | 3 | 17.2 | 7.4 | -3.2 | +4.4 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 6 | 13 | 6.0 | +7.0 | 15 | 6.3 | 11.2 | -0.3 | +8.2 |
| 5 | Milan | 6 | 12 | 10.7 | +1.3 | 6 | 11.6 | 7.3 | -0.6 | +2.3 |
| 6 | Juventus | 6 | 11 | 13.0 | -2.0 | 2 | 11.6 | 2.9 | -2.6 | -2.1 |
| 7 | Como | 6 | 11 | 11.1 | -0.1 | 5 | 13.4 | 9.0 | -4.4 | +3.0 |
| 8 | Napoli | 6 | 10 | 11.8 | -1.8 | 4 | 12.4 | 7.4 | -2.4 | +1.4 |
| 9 | Frosinone | 6 | 10 | 5.2 | +4.8 | 16 | 8.9 | 14.5 | +0.1 | +7.5 |
| 10 | Atalanta | 6 | 9 | 4.3 | +4.7 | 18 | 6.8 | 13.4 | +1.2 | +5.4 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 6 | 8 | 8.6 | -0.6 | 10 | 10.7 | 10.1 | -0.7 | +0.1 |
| 12 | Torino | 6 | 7 | 7.6 | -0.6 | 11 | 7.5 | 8.3 | -0.5 | -0.7 |
| 13 | Lecce | 6 | 6 | 2.8 | +3.2 | 20 | 7.5 | 16.8 | -1.5 | +4.8 |
| 14 | Bologna | 6 | 5 | 10.1 | -5.1 | 7 | 9.2 | 7.2 | -4.2 | +0.2 |
| 15 | Udinese | 6 | 4 | 5.1 | -1.1 | 17 | 7.7 | 13.0 | +1.3 | 0.0 |
| 16 | Monza | 6 | 4 | 9.5 | -5.5 | 9 | 11.2 | 9.6 | -2.2 | -5.4 |
| 17 | Genoa | 6 | 4 | 6.5 | -2.5 | 14 | 6.2 | 8.7 | -1.2 | -2.3 |
| 18 | Parma | 6 | 4 | 4.3 | -0.3 | 19 | 4.7 | 12.7 | -0.7 | +2.7 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 6 | 4 | 7.2 | -3.2 | 12 | 8.4 | 11.0 | -1.4 | -3.0 |
| 20 | Venezia | 6 | 0 | 6.7 | -6.7 | 13 | 11.7 | 15.3 | -6.7 | -0.7 |
20 clubs · sample: 60 matches this season. Points are the competition's official totals wherever it has seen the same matches we have, so a points deduction shows beside the club. Where the official table is a round ahead of our results, points are counted from those results instead.
What these columns mean
- xPts
- The points a club would average if its matches were replayed many times over, given the chances created and conceded in them. A club can win a game it would usually lose and bank three points the chances did not earn.
- Gap
- Points minus expected points. Positive means a club is ahead of what its chances have been worth. It measures what has already happened — it is not a forecast that the gap will close.
- xPos
- The league position implied by expected points. Read it next to the real position: the two rarely match, and the distance is the argument the table is making.
- xG / xGA
- Chance quality created, and chance quality conceded, across the season. The difference between them is the single number closest to "how good has this team actually been" — a club can be flattered by results for a long time, but not by both of these at once.
- Finishing / Keeping
- Goals scored minus the chance quality that produced them, and the same for the goalkeeper in reverse. Both are descriptions of what happened, not ratings of skill — at player level, finishing above expectation in one season has essentially no relationship with the next, and nothing here claims clubs are different.