Serie A · 2026/27

Season forecast

The 320 remaining fixtures played out 20,000 times, drawing from the same engine that prices this league's matchday. Each simulated season also draws a slightly different set of team ratings — because we do not know exactly how good anyone is, and because sides genuinely become different teams over a season.

This forecast moves. It is re-run every time results land, so it reads the season rather than the summer. Nothing moved by more than a point since 2026-10-13 — a quiet week is a real result too.

These ranges are calibrated. Tested on 5 seasons this engine never tuned on, 89% of clubs finished inside their stated 90% band — against 76% for a version that treated preseason ratings as though they were known exactly, and was confidently wrong about how much a season can move.

Expected points

Bar chart — 20 bars.
Label	Value	Highlighted
Inter	86	no
Roma	79	no
Juventus	71	no
Como	70	no
Napoli	68	no
Ac Milan	66	no
Lazio	63	no
Atalanta	61	no
Cagliari	51	no
Bologna	49	no
Sassuolo	48	no
Frosinone	46	no
Torino	45	no
Udinese	42	no
Fiorentina	42	no
Genoa	39	no
Parma	35	no
Lecce	32	no
Monza	30	no
Venezia	22	no

The average finish across every simulated season. The 90% range in the table below matters more than this number — those ranges overlap heavily, which is the true picture of a league nobody can call in August. n = 20,000 · as of 2026-10-15

Title race

Inter61%
Roma24%
Juventus5%
Como4%
Napoli3%
Ac Milan2%

Outcome distribution — 100% stacked bar across 6 categories.
Category	Value	Share
Inter	0.605	61.2%
Roma	0.238	24.1%
Juventus	0.054	5.5%
Como	0.042	4.3%
Napoli	0.027	2.7%
Ac Milan	0.022	2.2%

Share of simulated seasons each club finished top. Clubs under 1% are omitted. n = 20,000 · as of 2026-10-15

Relegation risk

Bar chart — 8 bars.
Label	Value	Highlighted
Venezia	90%	yes
Monza	60%	yes
Lecce	51%	yes
Parma	35%	no
Genoa	19%	no
Fiorentina	14%	no
Udinese	12%	no
Frosinone	7%	no

Relegation is the hardest of these calls, not the easiest — the bottom of a table is decided by a handful of results between sides the model rates almost identically. Read the spread rather than the order. n = 20,000 · as of 2026-10-15

Full projection

Club	Title	Since last week	Top 4	Relegation	Points	90% range
Inter	60.5%	−1%	96%	0%	86	72–99
Roma	23.8%	+1%	87%	0%	79	65–93
Juventus	5.4%	—	54%	0%	71	56–85
Como	4.2%	—	48%	0%	70	56–85
Napoli	2.7%	—	43%	0%	68	53–82
Ac Milan	2.2%	—	33%	0%	66	51–81
Lazio	0.7%	—	20%	0%	63	47–78
Atalanta	0.4%	—	13%	0%	61	46–75
Cagliari	0.0%	—	2%	1%	51	37–66
Bologna	0.0%	—	1%	2%	49	35–64
Sassuolo	0.0%	—	1%	4%	48	33–63
Frosinone	0.0%	—	1%	7%	46	31–62
Torino	0.0%	—	0%	6%	45	31–59
Udinese	0.0%	—	0%	12%	42	28–56
Fiorentina	0.0%	—	0%	14%	42	28–56
Genoa	0.0%	—	0%	19%	39	26–53
Parma	0.0%	—	0%	35%	35	22–49
Lecce	0.0%	—	0%	51%	32	20–46
Monza	0.0%	—	0%	60%	30	18–44
Venezia	0.0%	—	0%	90%	22	10–35

320 matches simulated from 2026-10-15 · rating spread σ=0.15 · 51 takes archived this season