Serie A · 2026/27

Season forecast

The 362 remaining fixtures played out 20,000 times, drawing from the same engine that prices this league's matchday. Each simulated season also draws a slightly different set of team ratings — because we do not know exactly how good anyone is, and because sides genuinely become different teams over a season.

This forecast moves. It is re-run every time results land, so it reads the season rather than the summer. Since 2026-08-30 the biggest changes are Inter +2% on the title.

These ranges are calibrated. Tested on 5 seasons this engine never tuned on, 89% of clubs finished inside their stated 90% band — against 76% for a version that treated preseason ratings as though they were known exactly, and was confidently wrong about how much a season can move.

Expected points

Bar chart — 20 bars.
Label	Value	Highlighted
Inter	83	no
Roma	74	no
Juventus	72	no
Como	69	no
Napoli	66	no
Ac Milan	65	no
Atalanta	65	no
Lazio	57	no
Bologna	52	no
Udinese	49	no
Sassuolo	47	no
Cagliari	43	no
Fiorentina	42	no
Frosinone	42	no
Genoa	41	no
Torino	40	no
Lecce	36	no
Parma	35	no
Monza	30	no
Venezia	29	no

The average finish across every simulated season. The 90% range in the table below matters more than this number — those ranges overlap heavily, which is the true picture of a league nobody can call in August. n = 20,000 · as of 2026-08-31

Title race

Inter55%
Roma17%
Juventus14%
Como7%
Atalanta4%
Napoli3%

Outcome distribution — 100% stacked bar across 6 categories.
Category	Value	Share
Inter	0.532	55.4%
Roma	0.161	16.8%
Juventus	0.133	13.9%
Como	0.066	6.9%
Atalanta	0.037	3.9%
Napoli	0.031	3.2%

Share of simulated seasons each club finished top. Clubs under 1% are omitted. n = 20,000 · as of 2026-08-31

Relegation risk

Bar chart — 8 bars.
Label	Value	Highlighted
Venezia	70%	yes
Monza	66%	yes
Parma	40%	no
Lecce	33%	no
Torino	20%	no
Genoa	16%	no
Fiorentina	15%	no
Frosinone	15%	no

Relegation is the hardest of these calls, not the easiest — the bottom of a table is decided by a handful of results between sides the model rates almost identically. Read the spread rather than the order. n = 20,000 · as of 2026-08-31

Full projection

Club	Title	Since last week	Top 4	Relegation	Points	90% range
Inter	53.2%	+2%	92%	0%	83	67–97
Roma	16.1%	—	68%	0%	74	57–89
Juventus	13.3%	−1%	63%	0%	72	56–88
Como	6.6%	—	51%	0%	69	53–85
Napoli	3.1%	−1%	38%	0%	66	50–81
Ac Milan	3.0%	—	33%	0%	65	49–81
Atalanta	3.7%	—	33%	0%	65	47–82
Lazio	0.7%	—	11%	1%	57	41–73
Bologna	0.2%	—	5%	3%	52	35–68
Udinese	0.1%	—	2%	5%	49	33–65
Sassuolo	0.1%	—	2%	7%	47	32–64
Cagliari	0.0%	—	0%	11%	43	29–59
Fiorentina	0.0%	—	1%	15%	42	27–59
Frosinone	0.0%	—	1%	15%	42	27–59
Genoa	0.0%	—	0%	16%	41	27–56
Torino	0.0%	—	0%	20%	40	26–56
Lecce	0.0%	—	0%	33%	36	23–51
Parma	0.0%	—	0%	40%	35	21–51
Monza	0.0%	—	0%	66%	30	17–44
Venezia	0.0%	—	0%	70%	29	16–43

362 matches simulated from 2026-08-31 · rating spread σ=0.15 · 11 takes archived this season