Ligue 1 · 2026/27

Season forecast

The 288 remaining fixtures played out 20,000 times, drawing from the same engine that prices this league's matchday. Each simulated season also draws a slightly different set of team ratings — because we do not know exactly how good anyone is, and because sides genuinely become different teams over a season.

This forecast moves. It is re-run every time results land, so it reads the season rather than the summer. Nothing moved by more than a point since 2026-08-30 — a quiet week is a real result too.

These ranges are calibrated. Tested on 5 seasons this engine never tuned on, 93% of clubs finished inside their stated 90% band — against 73% for a version that treated preseason ratings as though they were known exactly, and was confidently wrong about how much a season can move.

Expected points

Bar chart — 18 bars.
Label	Value	Highlighted
Paris Saint Germain	68	no
Lens	65	no
Monaco	60	no
Marseille	60	no
Lille	58	no
Lyon	53	no
Rennes	50	no
Paris Fc	49	no
Strasbourg	48	no
Toulouse	47	no
Brest	43	no
Lorient	41	no
Nice	40	no
Auxerre	35	no
Le Havre	34	no
Le Mans	33	no
Angers	33	no
Troyes	30	no

The average finish across every simulated season. The 90% range in the table below matters more than this number — those ranges overlap heavily, which is the true picture of a league nobody can call in August. n = 20,000 · as of 2026-08-31

Title race

Paris Saint Germain35%
Lens26%
Monaco15%
Marseille11%
Lille8%
Lyon4%

Outcome distribution — 100% stacked bar across 6 categories.
Category	Value	Share
Paris Saint Germain	0.315	35.1%
Lens	0.237	26.4%
Monaco	0.133	14.8%
Marseille	0.1	11.1%
Lille	0.076	8.5%
Lyon	0.036	4.0%

Share of simulated seasons each club finished top. Clubs under 1% are omitted. n = 20,000 · as of 2026-08-31

Bottom of the table

Bar chart — 8 bars.
Label	Value	Highlighted
Troyes	39%	no
Le Mans	32%	no
Angers	30%	no
Le Havre	25%	no
Auxerre	22%	no
Nice	14%	no
Lorient	11%	no
Brest	8%	no

Relegation is the hardest of these calls, not the easiest — the bottom of a table is decided by a handful of results between sides the model rates almost identically. Read the spread rather than the order. This is the chance of finishing in the bottom 2, who go down directly. The club one place above them plays a two-legged playoff to stay up, which is not counted here. n = 20,000 · as of 2026-08-31

Full projection

Club	Title	Since last week	Top 4	Bottom 2	Points	90% range
Paris Saint Germain	31.5%	—	73%	0%	68	47–86
Lens	23.7%	—	66%	0%	65	46–84
Monaco	13.3%	+1%	50%	1%	60	38–81
Marseille	10.0%	−1%	49%	1%	60	40–79
Lille	7.6%	—	41%	1%	58	38–77
Lyon	3.6%	—	25%	2%	53	33–73
Rennes	2.0%	—	21%	3%	50	30–70
Paris Fc	1.8%	+1%	17%	3%	49	29–68
Strasbourg	2.2%	—	16%	6%	48	27–70
Toulouse	1.2%	—	13%	5%	47	26–66
Brest	1.7%	—	9%	8%	43	25–65
Lorient	0.8%	—	7%	11%	41	22–62
Nice	0.3%	—	5%	14%	40	20–60
Auxerre	0.3%	—	2%	22%	35	18–55
Le Havre	0.0%	—	1%	25%	34	17–53
Le Mans	0.1%	—	2%	32%	33	15–53
Angers	0.0%	—	1%	30%	33	17–51
Troyes	0.0%	—	0%	39%	30	16–47

288 matches simulated from 2026-08-31 · rating spread σ=0.25 · 11 takes archived this season