Ligue 1 · 2026/27

Season forecast

The 252 remaining fixtures played out 20,000 times, drawing from the same engine that prices this league's matchday. Each simulated season also draws a slightly different set of team ratings — because we do not know exactly how good anyone is, and because sides genuinely become different teams over a season.

This forecast moves. It is re-run every time results land, so it reads the season rather than the summer. Nothing moved by more than a point since 2026-10-13 — a quiet week is a real result too.

These ranges are calibrated. Tested on 5 seasons this engine never tuned on, 93% of clubs finished inside their stated 90% band — against 73% for a version that treated preseason ratings as though they were known exactly, and was confidently wrong about how much a season can move.

Expected points

Bar chart — 18 bars.
Label	Value	Highlighted
Paris Saint Germain	71	no
Monaco	61	no
Lille	59	no
Lens	58	no
Lyon	56	no
Rennes	52	no
Paris Fc	51	no
Marseille	50	no
Brest	48	no
Toulouse	48	no
Strasbourg	47	no
Lorient	43	no
Nice	43	no
Auxerre	38	no
Le Mans	36	no
Angers	31	no
Le Havre	31	no
Troyes	25	no

The average finish across every simulated season. The 90% range in the table below matters more than this number — those ranges overlap heavily, which is the true picture of a league nobody can call in August. n = 20,000 · as of 2026-10-15

Title race

Paris Saint Germain53%
Monaco14%
Lille12%
Lens8%
Lyon8%
Paris Fc4%

Outcome distribution — 100% stacked bar across 6 categories.
Category	Value	Share
Paris Saint Germain	0.469	53.1%
Monaco	0.123	13.9%
Lille	0.107	12.1%
Lens	0.075	8.5%
Lyon	0.071	8.0%
Paris Fc	0.039	4.4%

Share of simulated seasons each club finished top. Clubs under 1% are omitted. n = 20,000 · as of 2026-10-15

Bottom of the table

Bar chart — 8 bars.
Label	Value	Highlighted
Troyes	65%	yes
Le Havre	37%	no
Angers	33%	no
Le Mans	19%	no
Auxerre	16%	no
Nice	9%	no
Lorient	5%	no
Strasbourg	4%	no

Relegation is the hardest of these calls, not the easiest — the bottom of a table is decided by a handful of results between sides the model rates almost identically. Read the spread rather than the order. This is the chance of finishing in the bottom 2, who go down directly. The club one place above them plays a two-legged playoff to stay up, which is not counted here. n = 20,000 · as of 2026-10-15

Full projection

Club	Title	Since last week	Top 4	Bottom 2	Points	90% range
Paris Saint Germain	46.9%	—	87%	0%	71	54–86
Monaco	12.3%	—	54%	0%	61	43–79
Lille	10.7%	—	45%	0%	59	40–77
Lens	7.5%	—	46%	0%	58	42–75
Lyon	7.1%	—	39%	0%	56	38–74
Rennes	3.3%	—	24%	1%	52	35–70
Paris Fc	3.9%	—	22%	1%	51	34–70
Marseille	2.4%	—	21%	3%	50	30–69
Brest	1.5%	—	15%	2%	48	31–66
Toulouse	1.6%	—	14%	3%	48	30–65
Strasbourg	1.1%	—	13%	4%	47	28–66
Lorient	0.5%	—	7%	5%	43	27–61
Nice	1.0%	—	8%	9%	43	24–63
Auxerre	0.2%	—	3%	16%	38	21–56
Le Mans	0.1%	—	3%	19%	36	20–56
Angers	0.0%	—	0%	33%	31	17–47
Le Havre	0.0%	—	1%	37%	31	13–50
Troyes	0.0%	—	0%	65%	25	12–41

252 matches simulated from 2026-10-15 · rating spread σ=0.25 · 51 takes archived this season