Match spotlight · xGB Core · Sun 18 Oct, 16:30

54%ARS WIN

Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal

The model's marquee match: 21% home, 54% away. Play this fixture 10,000 times and expect NOT winning 2060, the draw 2560, ARS winning 5380.

⚡ Bukayo Saka 32% to scoreOver 2.5 goals · 54%Full assessment →

NOT WIN21%DRAW26%ARS WIN54%

1–2

Likeliest ARS win

Gameweek 7 board — all assessments

Next round on Sat 17 Oct

Draw watchTOT—COV28%FUL—HUL28%LEE—MUN27%the week's likeliest stalemates

EVE — CHESat 12:30

H 38%D 26%A 36%

BRE — LIVSat 15:00

H 40%D 25%A 35%

FUL — HULSat 15:00

H 44%D 28%A 28%

MCI — IPSSat 15:00

NEW — AVLSat 17:30

H 43%D 25%A 32%

BOU — SUNSun 14:00

H 52%D 25%A 23%

BHA — CRYSun 14:00

H 59%D 22%A 20%

LEE — MUNSun 14:00

H 38%D 27%A 36%

NOT — ARSSun 16:30

H 21%D 26%A 54%

TOT — COVMon 20:00

H 45%D 28%A 26%

Finished — graded

COV — NEW4–1

✗ missedgave this 29%

LIV — MCI0–3

✓ calledgave this 40%

HUL — EVE2–2

✗ missedgave this 32%

CRY — NOT3–1

✓ calledgave this 41%

MUN — TOT1–1

✗ missedgave this 22%

SUN — BHA0–2

✓ calledgave this 43%

CHE — BOU5–1

✓ calledgave this 41%

IPS — FUL2–1

✗ missedgave this 34%

AVL — BRE2–2

✗ missedgave this 25%

ARS — LEE2–1

✓ calledgave this 61%

Gameweek 8 — next up

Assessed already, before a ball is kicked. These re-price as this week’s results land.

Draw watchCOV—FUL28%SUN—LEE28%LIV—BHA27%the week's likeliest stalemates

IPS — NOTFri 20:00

H 28%D 25%A 47%

AVL — MCISat 12:30

H 24%D 24%A 52%

ARS — EVESat 15:00

H 65%D 22%A 13%

COV — FULSat 15:00

H 36%D 28%A 36%

CHE — TOTSat 17:30

H 51%D 25%A 24%

CRY — NEWSun 14:00

H 42%D 24%A 34%

HUL — BRESun 14:00

H 29%D 26%A 45%

LIV — BHASun 14:00

H 39%D 27%A 34%

MUN — BOUSun 14:00

H 45%D 25%A 30%

SUN — LEESun 16:30

H 35%D 28%A 38%

Player projections — Gameweek 8


Erling Haaland MCI	at AVL	0.80	0.16	47%	14%
Bryan Mbeumo MUN	vs BOU	0.68	0.29	43%	23%
Dominic Calvert-Lewin LEE	at SUN	0.57	0.03	38%	3%
Bukayo Saka ARS	vs EVE	0.51	0.35	36%	27%
Jack Rudoni COV	vs FUL	0.51	0.25	36%	20%
Thiago BRE	at HUL	0.50	0.06	35%	6%
João Pedro CHE	vs TOT	0.49	0.13	35%	11%
Cole Palmer CHE	vs TOT	0.45	0.57	32%	38%
Yoane Wissa NEW	at CRY	0.42	0.14	31%	13%
Morgan Gibbs-White NOT	at IPS	0.38	0.60	29%	40%
Harvey Barnes NEW	at CRY	0.34	0.31	26%	25%
Bruno Fernandes MUN	vs BOU	0.33	0.54	26%	37%
Kai Havertz ARS	vs EVE	0.32	0.24	25%	20%
Dan Ndoye NOT	at IPS	0.31	0.24	25%	20%
Mathis Cherki MCI	at AVL	0.30	0.40	24%	30%
Enzo Le Fée SUN	vs LEE	0.21	0.47	18%	34%
Marcus Tavernier BOU	at MUN	0.21	0.38	18%	29%
Daichi Kamada CRY	vs NEW	0.18	0.44	16%	32%
Dominik Szoboszlai LIV	vs BHA	0.16	0.51	14%	36%
Adam Wharton CRY	vs NEW	0.04	0.53	4%	37%

Today’s headlines

Manchester City win — The week's most lopsided assessment: MCI vs IPS.

Erling Haaland projected G+A — The fantasy play of the week (vs IPS).

Chelsea upset watch — The lower-index side has real upset equity: EVE vs CHE.

Player projections — Gameweek 7


Erling Haaland MCI	vs IPS	1.21	0.24	59%	20%
Thierno Barry EVE	vs CHE	0.84	0.06	49%	6%
Dominic Calvert-Lewin LEE	vs MUN	0.61	0.04	40%	4%
Bryan Mbeumo MUN	at LEE	0.57	0.24	38%	20%
Thiago BRE	vs LIV	0.51	0.06	36%	6%
Mathis Cherki MCI	vs IPS	0.46	0.60	33%	40%
Bukayo Saka ARS	at NOT	0.45	0.30	32%	24%
Yoane Wissa NEW	vs AVL	0.44	0.15	32%	13%
Jack Rudoni COV	at TOT	0.41	0.20	30%	17%
Cole Palmer CHE	at EVE	0.37	0.47	28%	34%
Harvey Barnes NEW	vs AVL	0.35	0.33	27%	26%
Evanilson BOU	vs SUN	0.35	0.26	27%	21%
Marcus Tavernier BOU	vs SUN	0.27	0.50	22%	35%
Bruno Fernandes MUN	at LEE	0.27	0.45	22%	33%
Maxim De Cuyper BHA	vs CRY	0.26	0.53	21%	36%
Pascal Groß BHA	vs CRY	0.25	0.47	21%	34%
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall EVE	vs CHE	0.24	0.37	20%	28%
Antoine Semenyo MCI	vs IPS	0.22	0.44	18%	32%
Enzo Le Fée SUN	at BOU	0.18	0.41	16%	30%
Dominik Szoboszlai LIV	at BRE	0.16	0.51	14%	36%

Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups. Full method: /model.

Season outlook — 20,000 simulated seasons

Arsenal42%
Man City39%
Brighton10%
Brentford4%
Liverpool3%
Man United3%

Proportional breakdown — 6 categories totalling 0.9127500000000002.
Category	Value	Share
Arsenal	0.38525	42.2%
Man City	0.35265	38.6%
Brighton	0.08935	9.8%
Brentford	0.03195	3.5%
Liverpool	0.02985	3.3%
Man United	0.0237	2.6%

Share of simulated seasons each club finishes top. as of 2026-10-15

Bar chart — 6 bars.
Label	Value	Highlighted
Ipswich	40%	no
Coventry	38%	no
Fulham	33%	no
Tottenham	31%	no
Sunderland	26%	no
Hull	23%	no

All three clubs relegated in 2025/26 were in the model's top four candidates before a ball was kicked. as of 2026-10-15

Model scoreboard — judged against the market

algorithm of the week

Every engine's running record, judged against the market, is published on the record page — wins and losses alike.

Updated 15 Oct 2026 · every prediction on the record at /model.