Match spotlight · xGB Core · Sat 5 Sept, 14:30

45%BVB WIN

Hoffenheim vs Dortmund

The model's marquee match: 32% home, 45% away. Play this fixture 10,000 times and expect HOF winning 3160, the draw 2380, BVB winning 4460.

Over 2.5 goals · 65%Full assessment →

HOF WIN32%DRAW24%BVB WIN45%

1–2

Likeliest BVB win

Called 5 of 8finished matches this round — every call frozen before kickoff, graded at full time

Gameweek 2 board — all assessments

Draw watchPAD—FRE26%HAM—MAI26%HOF—BVB24%the week's likeliest stalemates

WER — RBLSat 14:30

H 28%D 24%A 48%

PAD — FRESat 14:30

H 31%D 26%A 43%

SCH — FCBSat 17:30

B04 — UNISat 14:30

H 66%D 19%A 14%

BMG — ELVSat 14:30

H 55%D 23%A 22%

HOF — BVBSat 14:30

H 32%D 24%A 45%

EIN — AUGSun 16:30

H 54%D 23%A 23%

HAM — MAISun 14:30

H 33%D 26%A 42%

Finished — graded

AUG — SCH3–0

✓ calledgave this 52%

FRE — WER4–1

✓ calledgave this 51%

BVB — HAM2–0

✓ calledgave this 73%

RBL — BMG3–0

✓ calledgave this 62%

MAI — PAD0–0

✗ missedgave this 20%

UNI — EIN3–3

✗ missedgave this 26%

ELV — B043–2

✗ missedgave this 20%

KOE — HOF3–2

✓ calledgave this 40%

Gameweek 3 — next up

Assessed already, before a ball is kicked. These re-price as this week’s results land.

Draw watchFRE—BMG25%KOE—WER24%MAI—EIN23%the week's likeliest stalemates

UNI — SCHFri 19:30

H 76%D 14%A 10%

MAI — EINSat 14:30

H 48%D 23%A 28%

HOF — VFBSat 14:30

H 39%D 23%A 39%

BVB — PADSat 14:30

AUG — B04Sat 14:30

H 26%D 23%A 50%

FRE — BMGSat 14:30

H 51%D 25%A 24%

KOE — WERSat 17:30

H 50%D 24%A 26%

RBL — HAMSun 14:30

H 67%D 19%A 14%

ELV — FCBSun 16:30

Player projections — Gameweek 3


Serhou Guirassy BVB	BVB v PAD	1.01	0.08	58%	8%
Patrik Schick B04	AUG v B04	0.78	0.15	50%	14%
Harry Kane FCB	ELV v FCB	0.77	0.29	50%	24%
Deniz Undav VFB	HOF v VFB	0.55	0.23	40%	20%
Said El Mala KOE	KOE v WER	0.55	0.31	39%	25%
Andrej Ilic UNI	UNI v SCH	0.54	0.18	39%	16%
Christoph Baumgartner RBL	RBL v HAM	0.49	0.12	37%	11%
Phillip Tietz MAI	MAI v EIN	0.45	0.13	35%	12%
Igor Matanovic FRE	FRE v BMG	0.37	0.25	29%	22%
Andrej Kramaric HOF	HOF v VFB	0.36	0.15	29%	14%
Luis Díaz FCB	ELV v FCB	0.36	0.33	28%	27%
Maximilian Beier BVB	BVB v PAD	0.35	0.40	28%	31%
Nadiem Amiri MAI	MAI v EIN	0.33	0.31	27%	25%
Sheraldo Becker MAI	MAI v EIN	0.30	0.33	25%	27%
Anton Kade AUG	AUG v B04	0.30	0.25	25%	21%
Michael Olise FCB	ELV v FCB	0.28	0.41	24%	32%
Oliver Burke UNI	UNI v SCH	0.27	0.29	23%	24%
Yan Diomande RBL	RBL v HAM	0.22	0.41	19%	32%
Ibrahim Maza B04	AUG v B04	0.22	0.29	19%	24%
Julian Ryerson BVB	BVB v PAD	0.06	0.80	6%	51%

Today’s headlines

Bayern win — The round's most lopsided assessment: SCH vs FCB.

HAM vs MAI — No outcome reaches even money — the round's tightest call.

PAD–FRE stalemate — The round's likeliest draw — a first-class outcome here.

Most likely to score or assist


Harry Kane FCB	SCH v FCB	1.24	0.47	65%	35%
Patrik Schick B04	B04 v UNI	0.92	0.18	55%	16%
Deniz Undav VFB	VFB v KOE	0.76	0.32	49%	26%
Serhou Guirassy BVB	HOF v BVB	0.66	0.05	45%	5%
Luis Díaz FCB	SCH v FCB	0.57	0.54	41%	39%
Nicolas Jackson FCB	SCH v FCB	0.52	0.17	38%	15%
Jamal Musiala FCB	SCH v FCB	0.47	0.34	35%	28%
Michael Olise FCB	SCH v FCB	0.45	0.65	34%	45%
Said El Mala KOE	VFB v KOE	0.38	0.21	30%	19%
Ermedin Demirovic VFB	VFB v KOE	0.38	0.17	30%	15%
Igor Matanovic FRE	PAD v FRE	0.34	0.23	27%	20%
Anton Kade AUG	EIN v AUG	0.28	0.23	23%	20%
Nadiem Amiri MAI	HAM v MAI	0.27	0.26	23%	22%
Ibrahim Maza B04	B04 v UNI	0.26	0.34	22%	28%
Sheraldo Becker MAI	HAM v MAI	0.25	0.27	21%	23%
Maximilian Beier BVB	HOF v BVB	0.23	0.26	20%	22%
Chris Führich VFB	VFB v KOE	0.21	0.34	19%	28%
Romano Schmid WER	WER v RBL	0.18	0.32	16%	26%
Álex Grimaldo B04	B04 v UNI	0.13	0.42	12%	32%
Julian Ryerson BVB	HOF v BVB	0.04	0.52	4%	38%

What we said last time

Gameweek 1: played, with no calls of ours on record to judge

AUG — SCH3–0

no call on record

UNI — EIN3–3

no call on record

RB- — BOR3–0

no call on record

FRE — WER4–1

no call on record

MAI — PAD0–0

no call on record

BAY — VFB5–1

no call on record

FC- — HOF3–2

no call on record

ELV — BAY3–2

no call on record

BOR — HAM2–0

no call on record

Season outlook — 20,000 simulated seasons

Bayern Munich72%
Borussia Dortmund10%
Bayer Leverkusen7%
Rb Leipzig5%
Vfb Stuttgart3%
Mainz 051%

Proportional breakdown — 6 categories totalling 0.966.
Category	Value	Share
Bayern Munich	0.699	72.4%
Borussia Dortmund	0.098	10.1%
Bayer Leverkusen	0.072	7.5%
Rb Leipzig	0.052	5.4%
Vfb Stuttgart	0.032	3.3%
Mainz 05	0.013	1.3%

Share of simulated seasons each club finishes top. as of 2026-08-31

Bar chart — 6 bars.
Label	Value	Highlighted
Schalke 04	80%	yes
Paderborn	41%	no
Elversberg	29%	no
Hamburger Sv	12%	no
Werder Bremen	8%	no
Borussia Monchengladbach	8%	no

The bottom 2 go down directly; the club above them plays off to stay up, which is not counted here. as of 2026-08-31