Match spotlight · Sun 23 Aug, 14:00
57%MCI WIN
Manchester City vs Bournemouth
Attack index 83 meets defense index 52 — the biggest mismatch of the week. Play this fixture 10,000 times and expect MCI winning 5740, the draw 2220, BOU winning 2040.
MCI WIN57%DRAW22%BOU WIN20%
2–1
Likeliest MCI win
Gameweek 1 board — all assessments
ARS — COVFri 20:00
H 83%D 13%A 4%
HUL — MUNSat 12:30
H 16%D 23%A 61%
IPS — SUNSat 15:00
H 26%D 28%A 46%
NOT — LEESat 15:00
H 36%D 27%A 37%
EVE — CRYSat 15:00
H 39%D 28%A 34%
BRE — TOTSat 17:30
H 51%D 25%A 24%
MCI — BOUSun 14:00
H 57%D 22%A 20%
BHA — AVLSun 14:00
H 44%D 27%A 29%
NEW — LIVSun 16:30
H 38%D 25%A 38%
FUL — CHEMon 20:00
H 35%D 27%A 39%
CRY — MCIFri 20:00
H 27%D 25%A 49%
Today’s headlines
Player projections — Gameweek 1
| Player | Fixture | Proj xG | Proj xA | P(Goal) | P(Assist) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruno Fernandes MUN | at HUL | 0.29 | 1.20 | 25% | 70% |
| Enzo Le Fée SUN | at IPS | 0.11 | 0.90 | 11% | 59% |
| William Osula NEW | vs LIV | 0.72 | 0.09 | 51% | 9% |
| Ollie Watkins AVL | at BHA | 0.61 | 0.16 | 46% | 14% |
| Dango Ouattara BRE | vs TOT | 0.33 | 0.43 | 28% | 35% |
| Dominik Szoboszlai LIV | at NEW | 0.16 | 0.58 | 15% | 44% |
| Viktor Gyokeres ARS | vs COV | 0.62 | 0.12 | 46% | 11% |
| Thiago BRE | vs TOT | 0.66 | 0.08 | 48% | 7% |
| Enzo Fernández CHE | at FUL | 0.26 | 0.43 | 23% | 35% |
| Bryan Mbeumo MUN | at HUL | 0.54 | 0.15 | 42% | 14% |
| Jack Hinshelwood BHA | vs AVL | 0.47 | 0.20 | 37% | 18% |
| Kai Havertz ARS | vs COV | 0.47 | 0.18 | 38% | 17% |
| Mathis Cherki MCI | vs BOU | 0.21 | 0.43 | 19% | 35% |
| Richarlison TOT | at BRE | 0.47 | 0.17 | 37% | 15% |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin LEE | at NOT | 0.59 | 0.01 | 45% | 1% |
| Mathis Cherki MCI | at CRY | 0.19 | 0.37 | 17% | 31% |
| Marcus Tavernier BOU | at MCI | 0.28 | 0.27 | 24% | 24% |
| Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall EVE | vs CRY | 0.23 | 0.32 | 21% | 28% |
| Cody Gakpo LIV | at NEW | 0.39 | 0.16 | 32% | 15% |
| Mathys Tel TOT | at BRE | 0.11 | 0.41 | 11% | 34% |
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups. Full method: /model.
Model scoreboard — judged against the market
engine
xGB Consensus
RPS 0.1981 · 54% correct
engine
xGB Core
RPS 0.1982 · 54% correct
algorithm of the week
xGB Momentum
RPS 0.2005 · 54% correct
engine
xGB Ladder
RPS 0.2008 · 54% correct
The market's closing prices score 0.1949 on the same matches — the one benchmark still ahead of us, and the running record is published either way.
Data through 2026-08-18 · every prediction on the record at /model.