Sunday 23 Aug, 16:30 · model dc-v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Newcastle United
57Index63Attack49Defense
LWDWL
38%LIV WIN
1–1
Most likely score
Liverpool
69Index75Attack61Defense
DLDLW
NEWCASTLE 37%DRAW 25%LIVERPOOL 38%
Over 2.5 goals
66%
Both teams score
68%
Expected goals λ
1.7 · 1.7
Why
- Liverpool attack index 75 meets Newcastle United defense index 49 — an away-side mismatch the table won't show you.
- The model makes this 37% vs 38% — closer than the table suggests.
Newcastle — projected scorers
Liverpool — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn't know lineups.
Score probabilities
| NEW ↓ · LIV → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4% | 5% | 5% | |||
| 1 | 4% | 11% | 8% | 5% | ||
| 2 | 5% | 8% | 7% | 4% | ||
| 3 | 5% | 4% | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Show the math
Home attack / defense0.231 / 0.076
Away attack / defense0.354 / 0.174
Home advantage γ0.200
Dixon-Coles ρ-0.110
Decay ξ (per year)1.375
lambda_home = exp(c + atk_h - def_a + gamma); 10x10 Poisson grid with Dixon-Coles correction. Full method: /model.