Premier League Justice Table

Final table for the 2025/26 season — new season data lands after matchweek 1. Expected points (xPts) come from 10,000 Monte-Carlo simulations of every match’s shots. Gap = points − xPts: green is running hot, red is owed points. Updated 2026-08-15.

Regression watch:Wolves -18.2Aston Villa +15.0Sunderland +14.0Leeds -10.7

#	Team	P	Pts	xPts	Gap	xRank	xG	xGA	Finishing	Keeping
1	Arsenal	38	85	77.3	+7.7	1	77.5	33.1	-6.5	+6.1
2	Man City	38	78	71.7	+6.3	2	79.4	46.5	-2.4	+11.5
3	Man United	38	71	64.8	+6.2	3	72.2	50.3	-3.2	+0.3
4	Aston Villa	38	65	50.0	+15.0	12	56.2	56.7	-0.2	+7.7
5	Liverpool	38	60	59.7	+0.3	5	67.3	53.9	-4.3	+0.9
6	Bournemouth	38	57	62.3	-5.3	4	66.8	56.8	-8.8	+2.8
7	Sunderland	38	54	40.0	+14.0	18	43.1	60.3	-1.1	+12.3
8	Brighton	38	53	58.0	-5.0	7	58.4	53.8	-6.4	+7.8
9	Brentford	38	53	57.4	-4.4	9	66.3	59.1	-11.3	+7.1
10	Chelsea	38	52	58.8	-6.8	6	72.2	58.1	-14.2	+6.1
11	Fulham	38	52	44.4	+7.6	15	49.6	60.8	-2.6	+9.8
12	Newcastle	38	49	57.3	-8.3	10	60.6	57.3	-7.6	+2.3
13	Everton	38	49	45.6	+3.4	14	49.9	60.0	-2.9	+10.0
14	Leeds	38	47	57.7	-10.7	8	59.8	56.3	-10.8	+0.3
15	Crystal Palace	38	45	53.2	-8.2	11	62.5	60.0	-21.5	+9.0
16	Forest	38	44	43.8	+0.2	16	48.9	64.7	-0.9	+13.7
17	Spurs	38	41	48.8	-7.8	13	46.8	55.6	+1.2	-1.4
18	West Ham	38	39	43.5	-4.5	17	49.6	68.1	-3.6	+3.1
19	Burnley	38	22	25.0	-3.0	20	36.9	82.6	+1.1	+7.6
20	Wolves	38	20	38.2	-18.2	19	38.4	68.3	-11.4	+0.3

Finishing = goals − xG (positive: clinical). Keeping = xGA − goals conceded (positive: keeper saving extra). Shot data: understat.com.