Saturday 22 Aug, 15:00 · model dc-v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries

Nottingham Forest

42Index41Attack45Defense
DLDWW
37%LEE WIN
1–1
Most likely score

Leeds United

55Index56Attack53Defense
LWDWD
FOREST 36%DRAW 27%LEEDS 37%
Over 2.5 goals
56%
Both teams score
60%
Expected goals λ
1.4 · 1.5
Why
Forest — projected scorers
Morgan Gibbs-White25%12% ast58'
Taiwo Awoniyi27%9% ast42'
Igor Jesus24%13% ast78'
Elliot Anderson10%23% ast74'
Neco Williams5%15% ast80'
Omari Hutchinson2%14% ast50'
Leeds — projected scorers
Dominic Calvert-Lewin43%1% ast86'
Lukas Nmecha14%13% ast38'
James Justin12%13% ast90'
Brenden Aaronson6%16% ast64'
Ao Tanaka10%7% ast79'
Jayden Bogle1%12% ast43'

Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn't know lineups.

Score probabilities
NOT ↓ · LEE →012345
07%7%6%
16%13%8%4%
26%8%6%3%
34%
4
5
Show the math
Home attack / defense0.017 / 0.044
Away attack / defense0.167 / 0.113
Home advantage γ0.200
Dixon-Coles ρ-0.110
Decay ξ (per year)1.375

lambda_home = exp(c + atk_h - def_a + gamma); 10x10 Poisson grid with Dixon-Coles correction. Full method: /model.