Friday 21 Aug, 20:00 · model dc-v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Arsenal
95Index78Attack99Defense
WWWWW
86%ARS WIN
3–0
Most likely score
Coventry City
50Index50Attack50Defense
ARSENAL 86%DRAW 11%COVENTRY 4%
Over 2.5 goals
70%
Both teams score
41%
Expected goals λ
3.0 · 0.6
Why
- Arsenal attack index 78 meets Coventry City defense index 50 — one of the biggest mismatches of the week.
- The model makes this 86% vs 4% — a clear favorite on the numbers.
Arsenal — projected scorers
Coventry — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn't know lineups.
Score probabilities
| ARS ↓ · COV → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | |||||
| 1 | 8% | 5% | ||||
| 2 | 13% | 7% | ||||
| 3 | 13% | 7% | ||||
| 4 | 10% | 5% | ||||
| 5 | 6% | 3% |
Show the math
Home attack / defense0.389 / 0.583
Away attack / defense0.000 / 0.000
Home advantage γ0.200
Dixon-Coles ρ-0.110
Decay ξ (per year)1.375
lambda_home = exp(c + atk_h - def_a + gamma); 10x10 Poisson grid with Dixon-Coles correction. Full method: /model.