Sunday 23 Aug, 14:00 · model dc-v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries

Brighton & Hove Albion

58Index55Attack60Defense
LLWLW
44%BHA WIN
1–1
Most likely score

Aston Villa

56Index57Attack56Defense
WWDLL
BRIGHTON 44%DRAW 27%ASTON VILLA 30%
Over 2.5 goals
56%
Both teams score
60%
Expected goals λ
1.6 · 1.3
Why
Brighton — projected scorers
Jack Hinshelwood29%16% ast86'
Danny Welbeck26%10% ast59'
Yankuba Minteh15%20% ast78'
Maxim De Cuyper2%27% ast49'
Pascal Groß5%18% ast90'
Georginio Rutter5%15% ast28'
Aston Villa — projected scorers
Ollie Watkins41%12% ast76'
Morgan Rogers13%13% ast72'
Ross Barkley10%13% ast63'
John McGinn3%17% ast51'
Emiliano Buendía5%15% ast54'
Ian Maatsen2%9% ast52'

Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn't know lineups.

Score probabilities
BHA ↓ · AVL →012345
06%6%5%
17%13%7%3%
27%9%6%
34%5%3%
4
5
Show the math
Home attack / defense0.155 / 0.168
Away attack / defense0.171 / 0.133
Home advantage γ0.200
Dixon-Coles ρ-0.110
Decay ξ (per year)1.375

lambda_home = exp(c + atk_h - def_a + gamma); 10x10 Poisson grid with Dixon-Coles correction. Full method: /model.