Saturday 22 Aug, 12:30 · model dc-v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Hull City
39Index39Attack40Defense
LLLDW
46%MUN WIN
1–1
Most likely score
Manchester United
66Index68Attack62Defense
WWDWW
HULL 28%DRAW 26%MAN UNITED 46%
Over 2.5 goals
59%
Both teams score
62%
Expected goals λ
1.3 · 1.7
Why
- Manchester United attack index 68 meets Hull City defense index 40 — an away-side mismatch the table won't show you.
- The model makes this 28% vs 46% — closer than the table suggests.
Hull — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
Man United — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn't know lineups.
Score probabilities
| HUL ↓ · MUN → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6% | 7% | 7% | 4% | ||
| 1 | 5% | 12% | 9% | 5% | ||
| 2 | 4% | 7% | 6% | 4% | ||
| 3 | 3% | |||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Show the math
Home attack / defense-0.007 / 0.003
Away attack / defense0.287 / 0.185
Home advantage γ0.200
Dixon-Coles ρ-0.110
Decay ξ (per year)1.375
lambda_home = exp(c + atk_h - def_a + gamma); 10x10 Poisson grid with Dixon-Coles correction. Full method: /model.