Saturday 22 Aug, 15:00 · model dc-v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Ipswich Town
7Index11Attack7Defense
LLLDL
45%SUN WIN
1–1
Most likely score
Sunderland
37Index29Attack50Defense
WWDDL
IPSWICH 26%DRAW 28%SUNDERLAND 45%
Over 2.5 goals
49%
Both teams score
53%
Expected goals λ
1.1 · 1.5
Why
- Sunderland attack index 29 meets Ipswich Town defense index 7 — an away-side mismatch the table won't show you.
- The model makes this 26% vs 45% — closer than the table suggests.
Ipswich — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
Sunderland — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn't know lineups.
Score probabilities
| IPS ↓ · SUN → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9% | 10% | 8% | 4% | ||
| 1 | 7% | 14% | 9% | 5% | ||
| 2 | 4% | 7% | 5% | |||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Show the math
Home attack / defense-0.287 / -0.258
Away attack / defense-0.113 / 0.085
Home advantage γ0.200
Dixon-Coles ρ-0.110
Decay ξ (per year)1.375
lambda_home = exp(c + atk_h - def_a + gamma); 10x10 Poisson grid with Dixon-Coles correction. Full method: /model.