Monday 24 Aug, 20:00 · model dc-v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Fulham
45Index41Attack50Defense
WDLLW
40%CHE WIN
1–1
Most likely score
Chelsea
61Index69Attack50Defense
LWDLL
FULHAM 34%DRAW 26%CHELSEA 40%
Over 2.5 goals
60%
Both teams score
63%
Expected goals λ
1.5 · 1.6
Why
- Chelsea attack index 69 meets Fulham defense index 50 — an away-side mismatch the table won't show you.
- The model makes this 34% vs 40% — closer than the table suggests.
Fulham — projected scorers
Chelsea — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn't know lineups.
Score probabilities
| FUL ↓ · CHE → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6% | 6% | 6% | 3% | ||
| 1 | 6% | 12% | 9% | 5% | ||
| 2 | 5% | 8% | 6% | 3% | ||
| 3 | 4% | 3% | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Show the math
Home attack / defense0.008 / 0.091
Away attack / defense0.297 / 0.090
Home advantage γ0.200
Dixon-Coles ρ-0.110
Decay ξ (per year)1.375
lambda_home = exp(c + atk_h - def_a + gamma); 10x10 Poisson grid with Dixon-Coles correction. Full method: /model.