Sunday 23 Aug, 14:00 · model dc-v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Manchester City
82Index83Attack78Defense
LDWWD
58%MCI WIN
1–1
Most likely score
Bournemouth
61Index66Attack54Defense
DDWWD
MAN CITY 58%DRAW 22%BOURNEMOUTH 20%
Over 2.5 goals
67%
Both teams score
65%
Expected goals λ
2.2 · 1.3
Why
- Manchester City attack index 83 meets Bournemouth defense index 54 — one of the biggest mismatches of the week.
- The model makes this 58% vs 20% — a clear favorite on the numbers.
Man City — projected scorers
Bournemouth — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn't know lineups.
Score probabilities
| MCI ↓ · BOU → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4% | 3% | ||||
| 1 | 6% | 10% | 6% | |||
| 2 | 8% | 10% | 6% | |||
| 3 | 6% | 7% | 4% | |||
| 4 | 3% | 4% | ||||
| 5 |
Show the math
Home attack / defense0.434 / 0.310
Away attack / defense0.269 / 0.119
Home advantage γ0.200
Dixon-Coles ρ-0.110
Decay ξ (per year)1.375
lambda_home = exp(c + atk_h - def_a + gamma); 10x10 Poisson grid with Dixon-Coles correction. Full method: /model.