Saturday 22 Aug, 15:00 · model dc-v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries

Everton

44Index37Attack53Defense
LLDDL
38%EVE WIN
1–1
Most likely score

Crystal Palace

52Index56Attack47Defense
LDLDL
EVERTON 38%DRAW 28%CRYSTAL PALACE 34%
Over 2.5 goals
54%
Both teams score
59%
Expected goals λ
1.5 · 1.4
Why
Everton — projected scorers
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall19%23% ast90'
Iliman Ndiaye20%16% ast90'
Beto24%4% ast43'
Thierno Barry19%2% ast47'
James Garner2%18% ast90'
James Tarkowski9%10% ast90'
Crystal Palace — projected scorers
Ismaila Sarr31%4% ast60'
Adam Wharton3%28% ast53'
Yeremi Pino3%25% ast40'
Daniel Muñoz9%15% ast72'
Jean-Philippe Mateta21%2% ast28'
Daichi Kamada2%14% ast59'

Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn't know lineups.

Score probabilities
EVE ↓ · CRY →012345
07%7%6%
17%13%8%4%
26%9%6%
33%4%
4
5
Show the math
Home attack / defense-0.023 / 0.108
Away attack / defense0.166 / 0.063
Home advantage γ0.200
Dixon-Coles ρ-0.110
Decay ξ (per year)1.375

lambda_home = exp(c + atk_h - def_a + gamma); 10x10 Poisson grid with Dixon-Coles correction. Full method: /model.