Match spotlight · xGB Core · Sat 10 Oct, 12:30

61%ARS WIN

Arsenal vs Leeds United

Attack index 77 meets defense index 60 — the biggest mismatch of the week. Play this fixture 10,000 times and expect ARS winning 6080, the draw 2380, LEE winning 1540.

⚡ Bukayo Saka 37% to scoreOver 2.5 goals · 53%Full assessment →

ARS WIN61%DRAW24%LEE WIN15%

2–0

Likeliest ARS win

Gameweek 6 board — all assessments

Next round on Sat 10 Oct

Draw watchHUL—EVE31%COV—NEW28%SUN—BHA26%the week's likeliest stalemates

Gameweek 7 — next up

Assessed already, before a ball is kicked. These re-price as this week’s results land.

Draw watchFUL—HUL30%EVE—CHE27%NEW—AVL25%the week's likeliest stalemates

Not yet assessed

BOU v SUN · Sun 18 Oct · not yet assessed
BHA v CRY · Sun 18 Oct · not yet assessed
LEE v MUN · Sun 18 Oct · not yet assessed
NOT v ARS · Sun 18 Oct · not yet assessed
TOT v COV · Mon 19 Oct · not yet assessed

Player projections — Gameweek 7


Erling Haaland MCI	vs IPS	1.27	0.25	60%	21%
Thierno Barry EVE	vs CHE	0.79	0.07	47%	7%
Yoane Wissa NEW	vs AVL	0.57	0.18	38%	15%
Thiago BRE	vs LIV	0.50	0.05	35%	5%
Alexander Isak LIV	at BRE	0.49	0.03	35%	3%
Cole Palmer CHE	at EVE	0.39	0.43	29%	32%
Harvey Barnes NEW	vs AVL	0.36	0.24	27%	20%
João Pedro CHE	at EVE	0.36	0.12	27%	11%
Mathis Cherki MCI	vs IPS	0.31	0.60	25%	40%
Phil Foden MCI	vs IPS	0.30	0.43	24%	32%
Oliver McBurnie HUL	at FUL	0.30	0.17	24%	15%
Antoine Semenyo MCI	vs IPS	0.24	0.42	20%	31%
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall EVE	vs CHE	0.24	0.31	20%	24%
Dominik Szoboszlai LIV	at BRE	0.22	0.61	19%	40%
Morgan Rogers CHE	at EVE	0.22	0.22	18%	18%
Cody Gakpo LIV	at BRE	0.21	0.28	18%	23%
Emiliano Buendía AVL	at NEW	0.15	0.26	14%	21%
John McGinn AVL	at NEW	0.13	0.30	12%	24%
Tyrique George EVE	vs CHE	0.07	0.40	7%	30%
Mikkel Damsgaard BRE	vs LIV	0.07	0.35	6%	27%

Today’s headlines

safest pick

61%

Manchester United win — The week's most lopsided assessment: MUN vs TOT.

captaincy

1.52

Erling Haaland projected G+A — The fantasy play of the week (vs IPS).

trap game

36%

Aston Villa upset watch — The lower-index side has real upset equity: AVL vs BRE.

Player projections — Gameweek 6


Bryan Mbeumo MUN	vs TOT	0.76	0.32	46%	25%
Erling Haaland MCI	at LIV	0.72	0.14	45%	13%
Thierno Barry EVE	at HUL	0.55	0.05	37%	5%
Bukayo Saka ARS	vs LEE	0.53	0.36	37%	28%
Thiago BRE	at AVL	0.48	0.05	34%	5%
Yoane Wissa NEW	at COV	0.46	0.14	33%	13%
Cole Palmer CHE	vs BOU	0.46	0.50	33%	35%
João Pedro CHE	vs BOU	0.41	0.14	31%	12%
Bruno Fernandes MUN	vs TOT	0.38	0.70	29%	44%
Leif Davis IPS	vs FUL	0.37	0.16	28%	14%
Jack Rudoni COV	vs NEW	0.36	0.22	27%	19%
Morgan Gibbs-White NOT	at CRY	0.35	0.46	27%	33%
Kai Havertz ARS	vs LEE	0.30	0.26	24%	21%
Emersonn IPS	vs FUL	0.29	0.27	23%	22%
Julio Enciso IPS	vs FUL	0.28	0.27	23%	22%
Marcus Tavernier BOU	at CHE	0.24	0.45	20%	33%
Dominik Szoboszlai LIV	vs MCI	0.22	0.61	19%	40%
Enzo Le Fée SUN	vs BHA	0.22	0.46	19%	33%
Maxim De Cuyper BHA	at SUN	0.18	0.48	15%	34%
Matheus Cunha MUN	vs TOT	0.17	0.40	15%	30%

Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups. Full method: /model.

Season outlook — 20,000 simulated seasons

Arsenal40%
Man City37%
Brighton9%
Man United6%
Liverpool5%
Brentford4%

Proportional breakdown — 6 categories totalling 0.8757.
Category	Value	Share
Arsenal	0.3508	40.1%
Man City	0.32435	37.0%
Brighton	0.07485	8.5%
Man United	0.04855	5.5%
Liverpool	0.0413	4.7%
Brentford	0.03585	4.1%

Share of simulated seasons each club finishes top. as of 2026-10-03

Bar chart — 6 bars.
Label	Value	Highlighted
Ipswich	45%	no
Coventry	42%	no
Tottenham	38%	no
Fulham	27%	no
Aston Villa	22%	no
Crystal Palace	21%	no

All three clubs relegated in 2025/26 were in the model's top four candidates before a ball was kicked. as of 2026-10-03

Model scoreboard — judged against the market

algorithm of the week

xGB Momentum

Every engine's running record, judged against the market, is published on the record page — wins and losses alike.

Updated 3 Oct 2026 · every prediction on the record at /model.