Monday 2 Nov, 20:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Newcastle United
41Index50Attack34Defense
LLWLD
42%NEW WIN
2–1
Likeliest NEW win · 9%
Everton
42Index35Attack51Defense
LDWDD
NEWCASTLE 42%DRAW 26%EVERTON 32%
Over 2.5 goals
58%
Both teams score
61%
Expected goals
1.6 · 1.4
Why
- The model makes this 42% vs 32% — closer than the table suggests.
Head to head · 22 league meetings since 2014/15
NEW 84 drawn10 EVE
2025/26NEW2–3EVE2026-02-28
2025/26EVE1–4NEW2025-11-29
2024/25NEW0–1EVE2025-05-25
2024/25EVE0–0NEW2024-10-05
2023/24NEW1–1EVE2024-04-02
Newcastle — projected scorers
Everton — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals81%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Over 3.5 goals35%
Both teams score61%
Double chance
NEW or draw68%
Draw or EVE58%
NEW or EVEno draw74%
Draw no bet
NEWstake returned on a draw57%
EVE43%
Clean sheets
NEW clean sheet25%
EVE clean sheet20%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| NEW↓ EVE→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are NEW goals, columns EVE. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
Price held steady since first assessment (2026-10-19) — reassessed after every played match, frozen at kickoff.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.