Saturday 19 Sept, 15:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after this week's earlier results (rev 4)
Newcastle United
47Index54Attack39Defense
DWDLW
50%NEW WIN
1–0
Likeliest NEW win · 12%
Hull City
25Index2Attack61Defense
DWWLL
NEWCASTLE 50%DRAW 29%HULL 21%
Over 2.5 goals
44%
Both teams score
48%
Expected goals
1.5 · 0.9
Why
- Hull City attack index 2 meets Newcastle United defense index 39 — an away-side mismatch the table won't show you.
- The model makes this 50% vs 21% — a clear favorite on the numbers.
Head to head · 2 league meetings since 2014/15
NEW 11 drawn0 HUL
2014/15HUL0–3NEW2015-01-31
2014/15NEW2–2HUL2014-09-20
Newcastle — projected scorers
Hull — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals71%
Over 2.5 goals44%
Over 3.5 goals23%
Both teams score48%
Double chance
NEW or draw79%
Draw or HUL50%
NEW or HULno draw71%
Draw no bet
NEWstake returned on a draw71%
HUL29%
Clean sheets
NEW clean sheet41%
HUL clean sheet22%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| NEW↓ HUL→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are NEW goals, columns HUL. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
Price movement — 4 pre-kickoff assessments, every one kept
5 Sept, 20:11NEW 50.3% (−15.2 since first)draw 28.7%HUL 20.9%
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.