Saturday 17 Oct, 17:30 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Newcastle United
43Index52Attack35Defense
WLDWD
45%NEW WIN
2–1
Likeliest NEW win · 9%
Aston Villa
42Index47Attack38Defense
WLDLL
NEWCASTLE 45%DRAW 25%ASTON VILLA 31%
Over 2.5 goals
63%
Both teams score
65%
Expected goals
1.8 · 1.5
Why
- The model makes this 44% vs 31% — closer than the table suggests.
Head to head · 18 league meetings since 2014/15
NEW 66 drawn6 AVL
2025/26NEW0–2AVL2026-01-25
2025/26AVL0–0NEW2025-08-16
2024/25AVL4–1NEW2025-04-19
2024/25NEW3–0AVL2024-12-26
2023/24AVL1–3NEW2024-01-30
Newcastle — projected scorers
Aston Villa — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals85%
Over 2.5 goals63%
Over 3.5 goals41%
Both teams score65%
Double chance
NEW or draw69%
Draw or AVL56%
NEW or AVLno draw75%
Draw no bet
NEWstake returned on a draw59%
AVL41%
Clean sheets
NEW clean sheet23%
AVL clean sheet17%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| NEW↓ AVL→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are NEW goals, columns AVL. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
Price held steady since first assessment (2026-10-03) — reassessed after every played match, frozen at kickoff.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.