Sunday 11 Oct, 14:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Hull City
38Index18Attack67Defense
LDDWW
38%HUL WIN
1–0
Likeliest HUL win · 11%
Everton
41Index35Attack52Defense
WDDDW
HULL 38%DRAW 31%EVERTON 30%
Over 2.5 goals
39%
Both teams score
47%
Expected goals
1.2 · 1.1
Why
- Everton attack index 35 meets Hull City defense index 67 — an away-side mismatch the table won't show you.
- The model makes this 38% vs 30% — closer than the table suggests.
Head to head · 4 league meetings since 2014/15
HUL 12 drawn1 EVE
2016/17EVE4–0HUL2017-03-18
2016/17HUL2–2EVE2016-12-31
2014/15HUL2–0EVE2015-01-01
2014/15EVE1–1HUL2014-12-03
Hull — projected scorers
Everton — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals67%
Over 2.5 goals39%
Over 3.5 goals19%
Both teams score47%
Double chance
HUL or draw70%
Draw or EVE62%
HUL or EVEno draw69%
Draw no bet
HULstake returned on a draw56%
EVE44%
Clean sheets
HUL clean sheet35%
EVE clean sheet30%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| HUL↓ EVE→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are HUL goals, columns EVE. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
Price held steady since first assessment (2026-09-27) — reassessed after every played match, frozen at kickoff.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.