Sunday 20 Sept, 16:30 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Fulham
37Index41Attack36Defense
LLLWD
47%MUN WIN
1–2
Likeliest MUN win · 9%
Manchester United
67Index74Attack52Defense
WLWWD
FULHAM 29%DRAW 25%MAN UNITED 47%
Over 2.5 goals
64%
Both teams score
66%
Expected goals
1.4 · 1.9
Why
- Manchester United attack index 74 meets Fulham defense index 36 — an away-side mismatch the table won't show you.
- The model makes this 29% vs 46% — closer than the table suggests.
Head to head · 12 league meetings since 2018/19
FUL 12 drawn9 MUN
2025/26MUN3–2FUL2026-02-01
2025/26FUL1–1MUN2025-08-24
2024/25FUL0–1MUN2025-01-26
2024/25MUN1–0FUL2024-08-16
2023/24MUN1–2FUL2024-02-24
Fulham — projected scorers
Man United — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals85%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Over 3.5 goals42%
Both teams score66%
Double chance
FUL or draw54%
Draw or MUN71%
FUL or MUNno draw75%
Draw no bet
FULstake returned on a draw38%
MUN62%
Clean sheets
FUL clean sheet16%
MUN clean sheet24%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| FUL↓ MUN→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are FUL goals, columns MUN. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.