Saturday 17 Oct, 15:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Fulham
35Index37Attack37Defense
DDLLL
39%FUL WIN
1–0
Likeliest FUL win · 10%
Hull City
38Index18Attack67Defense
LDDWW
FULHAM 39%DRAW 30%HULL 31%
Over 2.5 goals
43%
Both teams score
50%
Expected goals
1.3 · 1.1
Why
- Hull City attack index 18 meets Fulham defense index 37 — an away-side mismatch the table won't show you.
- Fulham average 2.0 xG at home this season.
- The model makes this 39% vs 31% — closer than the table suggests.
Fulham — projected scorers
Hull — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals71%
Over 2.5 goals43%
Over 3.5 goals22%
Both teams score50%
Double chance
FUL or draw69%
Draw or HUL61%
FUL or HULno draw70%
Draw no bet
FULstake returned on a draw56%
HUL44%
Clean sheets
FUL clean sheet33%
HUL clean sheet28%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| FUL↓ HUL→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are FUL goals, columns HUL. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
Price held steady since first assessment (2026-10-03) — reassessed after every played match, frozen at kickoff.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.