Sunday 25 Oct, 14:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Crystal Palace
41Index51Attack32Defense
DLWLL
42%CRY WIN
2–1
Likeliest CRY win · 9%
Newcastle United
44Index53Attack35Defense
WLDWD
CRYSTAL PALACE 42%DRAW 25%NEWCASTLE 33%
Over 2.5 goals
66%
Both teams score
67%
Expected goals
1.8 · 1.6
Why
- Newcastle United attack index 53 meets Crystal Palace defense index 32 — an away-side mismatch the table won't show you.
- The model makes this 42% vs 33% — closer than the table suggests.
Head to head · 22 league meetings since 2014/15
CRY 68 drawn8 NEW
2025/26CRY2–1NEW2026-04-12
2025/26NEW2–0CRY2026-01-04
2024/25NEW5–0CRY2025-04-16
2024/25CRY1–1NEW2024-11-30
2023/24CRY2–0NEW2024-04-24
Crystal Palace — projected scorers
Newcastle — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals86%
Over 2.5 goals66%
Over 3.5 goals44%
Both teams score67%
Double chance
CRY or draw67%
Draw or NEW58%
CRY or NEWno draw75%
Draw no bet
CRYstake returned on a draw56%
NEW44%
Clean sheets
CRY clean sheet21%
NEW clean sheet17%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| CRY↓ NEW→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are CRY goals, columns NEW. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
Price held steady since first assessment (2026-10-11) — reassessed after every played match, frozen at kickoff.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.