Saturday 29 Aug, 17:30 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
0–2✓ called — the NEW win we priced at 38% · RPS 0.256
The claim — frozen at kickoff

Tottenham Hotspur

35Index26Attack48Defense
DLDDL
38%NEW WIN
1–1
Most likely score

Newcastle United

43Index52Attack35Defense
LWLDW
SPURS 36%DRAW 26%NEWCASTLE 38%
FT 0–2 — the model called it (RPS 0.256). Graded 2026-08-29 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
60%
Both teams score
63%
Expected goals
1.5 · 1.6
Head to head · 22 league meetings since 2014/15
TOT 93 drawn10 NEW
2025/26TOT1–2NEW2026-02-10
2025/26NEW2–2TOT2025-12-02
2024/25TOT1–2NEW2025-01-04
2024/25NEW2–1TOT2024-09-01
2023/24NEW4–0TOT2024-04-13
Spurs — projected scorers
Richarlison44%18% ast—
Mathys Tel13%42% ast—
Pedro Porro8%17% ast—
Conor Gallagher8%8% ast—
Iyenoma Destiny Udogie1%7% ast—
Kevin Danso4%2% ast—
Newcastle — projected scorers
William Osula41%9% ast—
Nick Woltemade7%20% astAST
Yoane Wissa24%2% astGOAL
Harvey Barnes15%10% ast—
Joe Willock6%19% ast—
Lewis Hall4%18% ast—

These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.

What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.