Saturday 31 Oct, 17:30 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Tottenham Hotspur
35Index26Attack48Defense
DLDDL
41%TOT WIN
2–1
Likeliest TOT win · 9%
Crystal Palace
39Index53Attack27Defense
WDLWL
SPURS 41%DRAW 26%CRYSTAL PALACE 33%
Over 2.5 goals
59%
Both teams score
62%
Expected goals
1.6 · 1.4
Why
- The model makes this 41% vs 33% — closer than the table suggests.
Head to head · 24 league meetings since 2014/15
TOT 163 drawn5 CRY
2025/26TOT1–3CRY2026-03-05
2025/26CRY0–1TOT2025-12-28
2024/25TOT0–2CRY2025-05-11
2024/25CRY1–0TOT2024-10-27
2023/24TOT3–1CRY2024-03-02
Spurs — projected scorers
Crystal Palace — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals82%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Over 3.5 goals37%
Both teams score62%
Double chance
TOT or draw67%
Draw or CRY59%
TOT or CRYno draw74%
Draw no bet
TOTstake returned on a draw55%
CRY45%
Clean sheets
TOT clean sheet24%
CRY clean sheet20%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| TOT↓ CRY→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are TOT goals, columns CRY. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
Price held steady since first assessment (2026-10-17) — reassessed after every played match, frozen at kickoff.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.