Sunday 30 Aug, 14:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
1–0✓ called — the SUN win we priced at 38% · RPS 0.245
The claim — frozen at kickoff

Sunderland

30Index23Attack46Defense
WLWWD
38%SUN WIN
1–1
Most likely score

Fulham

36Index36Attack42Defense
LLWDL
SUNDERLAND 38%DRAW 29%FULHAM 33%
FT 1–0 — the model called it (RPS 0.245). Graded 2026-08-30 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
47%
Both teams score
53%
Expected goals
1.3 · 1.2
Head to head · 2 league meetings since 2025/26
SUN 00 drawn2 FUL
2025/26SUN1–3FUL2026-02-22
2025/26FUL1–0SUN2025-11-22
Sunderland — projected scorers
Enzo Le Fée9%51% ast—
Brian Brobbey34%6% ast—
Trai Hume8%22% ast—
Noah Sadiki13%7% ast—
Granit Xhaka4%8% ast—
Nordi Mukiele7%2% ast—
Fulham — projected scorers
Rodrigo Muniz20%6% ast—
Timothy Castagne7%20% ast—
Joshua King13%7% ast—
Antonee Robinson12%6% ast—
Oscar Bobb5%12% ast—
Harry Wilson5%10% ast—

These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.

What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.