Saturday 5 Sept, 15:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
0–0✗ missed — the draw we priced at 27% · RPS 0.148
The claim — frozen at kickoff

Nottingham Forest

47Index47Attack48Defense
LLWDD
48%NOT WIN
1–1
Most likely score

Tottenham Hotspur

35Index26Attack48Defense
DLDDL
FOREST 48%DRAW 27%SPURS 25%
FT 0–0 — the model missed (RPS 0.148). Graded 2026-09-06 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
52%
Both teams score
55%
Expected goals
1.6 · 1.1
Head to head · 8 league meetings since 2022/23
NOT 40 drawn4 TOT
2025/26TOT0–3NOT2026-03-22
2025/26NOT3–0TOT2025-12-14
2024/25TOT1–2NOT2025-04-21
2024/25NOT1–0TOT2024-12-26
2023/24TOT3–1NOT2024-04-07
Forest — projected scorers
Morgan Gibbs-White31%18% ast—
Igor Jesus36%7% ast—
Neco Williams8%17% ast—
Taiwo Awoniyi14%5% ast—
Elliot Anderson6%13% ast—
Dan Ndoye5%9% ast—
Spurs — projected scorers
Mathys Tel12%28% ast—
Richarlison24%11% ast—
Pedro Porro8%12% ast—
Conor Gallagher5%4% ast—
Iyenoma Destiny Udogie0%5% ast—
Rodrigo Bentancur2%2% ast—

These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.

What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.