Saturday 5 Sept, 15:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after this week's earlier results (rev 6)
Nottingham Forest
43Index42Attack47Defense
DLDLD
48%NOT WIN
2–1
Likeliest NOT win · 10%
Tottenham Hotspur
32Index31Attack41Defense
LLWLD
FOREST 48%DRAW 27%SPURS 25%
Over 2.5 goals
52%
Both teams score
55%
Expected goals
1.6 · 1.1
Why
- Tottenham Hotspur attack index 31 meets Nottingham Forest defense index 47 — an away-side mismatch the table won't show you.
- The model makes this 48% vs 25% — a clear favorite on the numbers.
Head to head · 8 league meetings since 2022/23
NOT 40 drawn4 TOT
2025/26TOT0–3NOT2026-03-22
2025/26NOT3–0TOT2025-12-14
2024/25TOT1–2NOT2025-04-21
2024/25NOT1–0TOT2024-12-26
2023/24TOT3–1NOT2024-04-07
Forest — projected scorers
Spurs — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals77%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Over 3.5 goals30%
Both teams score55%
Double chance
NOT or draw75%
Draw or TOT52%
NOT or TOTno draw73%
Draw no bet
NOTstake returned on a draw66%
TOT34%
Clean sheets
NOT clean sheet33%
TOT clean sheet20%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| NOT↓ TOT→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are NOT goals, columns TOT. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
Price movement — 6 pre-kickoff assessments, every one kept
30 Aug, 16:29NOT 47.9% (+2.9 since first)draw 26.9%TOT 25.2%
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.