Saturday 22 Aug, 15:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
0–1✓ called — the LEE win we priced at 37% · RPS 0.263
The claim — frozen at kickoff

Nottingham Forest

47Index47Attack48Defense
LLWDD
37%LEE WIN
1–1
Most likely score

Leeds United

55Index49Attack60Defense
LDWDD
FOREST 36%DRAW 27%LEEDS 37%
FT 0–1 — the model called it (RPS 0.263). Graded 2026-08-22 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
56%
Expected goals
1.5 · 1.5
Head to head · 4 league meetings since 2022/23
NOT 20 drawn2 LEE
2025/26LEE3–1NOT2026-02-06
2025/26NOT3–1LEE2025-11-09
2022/23LEE2–1NOT2023-04-04
2022/23NOT1–0LEE2023-02-05
Forest — projected scorers
Morgan Gibbs-White28%15% ast—
Igor Jesus26%17% ast—
Taiwo Awoniyi30%11% ast—
Elliot Anderson10%23% ast—
Neco Williams6%18% ast—
Omari Hutchinson2%18% ast—
Leeds — projected scorers
Dominic Calvert-Lewin45%1% ast—
Lukas Nmecha14%14% ast—
James Justin12%14% ast—
Brenden Aaronson6%16% ast—
Ao Tanaka11%8% ast—
Jayden Bogle1%13% ast—

These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.

What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.