Saturday 19 Sept, 17:30 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after this week's earlier results (rev 3)
Nottingham Forest
40Index38Attack46Defense
DDLDL
38%NOT WIN
1–0
Likeliest NOT win · 10%
Coventry City
46Index32Attack63Defense
LLL
FOREST 38%DRAW 30%COVENTRY 31%
Over 2.5 goals
44%
Both teams score
51%
Expected goals
1.3 · 1.1
Why
- The model makes this 38% vs 31% — closer than the table suggests.
Forest — projected scorers
Coventry — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals71%
Over 2.5 goals44%
Over 3.5 goals23%
Both teams score51%
Double chance
NOT or draw69%
Draw or COV62%
NOT or COVno draw70%
Draw no bet
NOTstake returned on a draw55%
COV45%
Clean sheets
NOT clean sheet32%
COV clean sheet28%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| NOT↓ COV→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are NOT goals, columns COV. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
Price movement — 3 pre-kickoff assessments, every one kept
5 Sept, 20:11NOT 38.2% (−22.3 since first)draw 30.4%COV 31.4%
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.