Sunday 23 Aug, 16:30 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
2–2✗ missed — the draw we priced at 25% · RPS 0.142
The claim — frozen at kickoff

Newcastle United

43Index52Attack35Defense
LWLDW
38%NEW WIN
1–1
Most likely score

Liverpool

63Index62Attack61Defense
LWDWD
NEWCASTLE 38%DRAW 25%LIVERPOOL 37%
FT 2–2 — the model missed (RPS 0.142). Graded 2026-08-23 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
66%
Both teams score
68%
Expected goals
1.7 · 1.7
Head to head · 22 league meetings since 2014/15
NEW 25 drawn15 LIV
2025/26LIV4–1NEW2026-01-31
2025/26NEW2–3LIV2025-08-25
2024/25LIV2–0NEW2025-02-26
2024/25NEW3–3LIV2024-12-04
2023/24LIV4–2NEW2024-01-01
Newcastle — projected scorers
William Osula51%7% astAST
Nick Woltemade8%24% ast—
Joe Willock7%22% astGOAL
Harvey Barnes16%9% ast—
Sven Botman7%16% ast—
Sandro Tonali2%19% ast—
Liverpool — projected scorers
Dominik Szoboszlai14%43% astGOAL
Cody Gakpo30%14% astGOAL
Alexis Mac Allister11%20% ast—
Virgil van Dijk26%2% ast—
Rio Ngumoha9%18% ast—
Florian Wirtz13%13% ast—

These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.

What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.