Saturday 5 Sept, 12:30 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after this week's earlier results (rev 6)
Newcastle United
49Index56Attack41Defense
WDLWD
41%NEW WIN
2–1
Likeliest NEW win · 9%
Bournemouth
58Index63Attack48Defense
DLDDW
NEWCASTLE 41%DRAW 25%BOURNEMOUTH 35%
Over 2.5 goals
66%
Both teams score
67%
Expected goals
1.8 · 1.6
Why
- Bournemouth attack index 63 meets Newcastle United defense index 41 — an away-side mismatch the table won't show you.
- The model makes this 40% vs 35% — closer than the table suggests.
Head to head · 16 league meetings since 2015/16
NEW 47 drawn5 BOU
2025/26NEW1–2BOU2026-04-18
2025/26BOU0–0NEW2025-09-21
2024/25NEW1–4BOU2025-01-18
2024/25BOU1–1NEW2024-08-25
2023/24NEW2–2BOU2024-02-17
Newcastle — projected scorers
Bournemouth — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals86%
Over 2.5 goals66%
Over 3.5 goals44%
Both teams score67%
Double chance
NEW or draw65%
Draw or BOU60%
NEW or BOUno draw76%
Draw no bet
NEWstake returned on a draw54%
BOU46%
Clean sheets
NEW clean sheet20%
BOU clean sheet17%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| NEW↓ BOU→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are NEW goals, columns BOU. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
Price movement — 6 pre-kickoff assessments, every one kept
30 Aug, 16:29NEW 40.4% (−0.2 since first)draw 24.5%BOU 35.1%
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.