Saturday 5 Sept, 12:30 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
2–2✗ missed — the draw we priced at 24% · RPS 0.144
The claim — frozen at kickoff

Newcastle United

43Index52Attack35Defense
LWLDW
41%NEW WIN
1–1
Most likely score

Bournemouth

61Index63Attack57Defense
LLDDD
NEWCASTLE 41%DRAW 24%BOURNEMOUTH 35%
FT 2–2 — the model missed (RPS 0.144). Graded 2026-09-05 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
66%
Both teams score
68%
Expected goals
1.8 · 1.6
Head to head · 16 league meetings since 2015/16
NEW 47 drawn5 BOU
2025/26NEW1–2BOU2026-04-18
2025/26BOU0–0NEW2025-09-21
2024/25NEW1–4BOU2025-01-18
2024/25BOU1–1NEW2024-08-25
2023/24NEW2–2BOU2024-02-17
Newcastle — projected scorers
William Osula36%8% ast—
Nick Woltemade9%34% ast—
Yoane Wissa33%3% ast—
Harvey Barnes21%14% astGOAL
Lewis Hall6%23% astAST
Joe Willock6%14% ast—
Bournemouth — projected scorers
Marcus Tavernier27%26% astGOAL
Rayan22%20% ast—
Evanilson18%16% ast—
Adrien Truffert14%14% ast—
Eli Junior Kroupi21%2% ast—
Alex Scott5%12% ast—

These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.

What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.