Saturday 10 Oct, 17:30 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Manchester United
69Index72Attack59Defense
DLDWL
61%MUN WIN
2–1
Likeliest MUN win · 10%
Tottenham Hotspur
30Index26Attack40Defense
LDDLL
MAN UNITED 61%DRAW 22%SPURS 17%
Over 2.5 goals
61%
Both teams score
57%
Expected goals
2.1 · 1.0
Why
- Manchester United attack index 72 meets Tottenham Hotspur defense index 40 — one of the biggest mismatches of the week.
- The model makes this 61% vs 17% — a clear favorite on the numbers.
Head to head · 24 league meetings since 2014/15
MUN 115 drawn8 TOT
2025/26MUN2–0TOT2026-02-07
2025/26TOT2–2MUN2025-11-08
2024/25TOT1–0MUN2025-02-16
2024/25MUN0–3TOT2024-09-29
2023/24MUN2–2TOT2024-01-14
Man United — projected scorers
Spurs — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals83%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Over 3.5 goals38%
Both teams score57%
Double chance
MUN or draw83%
Draw or TOT39%
MUN or TOTno draw78%
Draw no bet
MUNstake returned on a draw79%
TOT21%
Clean sheets
MUN clean sheet36%
TOT clean sheet12%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| MUN↓ TOT→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are MUN goals, columns TOT. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
Price held steady since first assessment (2026-09-26) — reassessed after every played match, frozen at kickoff.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.