Sunday 13 Sept, 16:30 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after this week's earlier results (rev 3)
Manchester United
67Index72Attack54Defense
WLWWD
41%MCI WIN
1–2
Likeliest MCI win · 9%
Manchester City
87Index83Attack75Defense
WWLDW
MAN UNITED 35%DRAW 25%MAN CITY 41%
Over 2.5 goals
65%
Both teams score
67%
Expected goals
1.6 · 1.8
Why
- Manchester City attack index 83 meets Manchester United defense index 54 — an away-side mismatch the table won't show you.
- The model makes this 35% vs 41% — closer than the table suggests.
Head to head · 24 league meetings since 2014/15
MUN 94 drawn11 MCI
2025/26MUN2–0MCI2026-01-17
2025/26MCI3–0MUN2025-09-14
2024/25MUN0–0MCI2025-04-06
2024/25MCI1–2MUN2024-12-15
2023/24MCI3–1MUN2024-03-03
Man United — projected scorers
Man City — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals86%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Over 3.5 goals43%
Both teams score67%
Double chance
MUN or draw59%
Draw or MCI65%
MUN or MCIno draw75%
Draw no bet
MUNstake returned on a draw46%
MCI54%
Clean sheets
MUN clean sheet17%
MCI clean sheet20%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| MUN↓ MCI→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are MUN goals, columns MCI. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
Price movement — 3 pre-kickoff assessments, every one kept
30 Aug, 20:24MUN 34.8% (+1.0 since first)draw 24.6%MCI 40.6%
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.