Sunday 13 Sept, 16:30 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
0–1✓ called — the MCI win we priced at 40% · RPS 0.239
The claim — frozen at kickoff

Manchester United

64Index69Attack57Defense
DDLDW
40%MCI WIN
1–1
Most likely score

Manchester City

87Index89Attack78Defense
WWWWW
MAN UNITED 35%DRAW 25%MAN CITY 40%
FT 0–1 — the model called it (RPS 0.239). Graded 2026-09-13 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
66%
Both teams score
68%
Expected goals
1.6 · 1.8
Head to head · 24 league meetings since 2014/15
MUN 94 drawn11 MCI
2025/26MUN2–0MCI2026-01-17
2025/26MCI3–0MUN2025-09-14
2024/25MUN0–0MCI2025-04-06
2024/25MCI1–2MUN2024-12-15
2023/24MCI3–1MUN2024-03-03
Man United — projected scorers
Bruno Fernandes23%48% ast—
Bryan Mbeumo45%17% ast—
Matheus Cunha12%18% ast—
Patrick Dorgu16%7% ast—
Harry Maguire2%11% ast—
Luke Shaw2%10% ast—
Man City — projected scorers
Erling Haaland39%11% astGOAL
Phil Foden19%27% ast—
Mathis Cherki17%29% ast—
Antoine Semenyo11%18% ast—
Nico O'Reilly8%5% ast—
Marc Guehi5%5% ast—

These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.

What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.