Sunday 30 Aug, 16:30 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
5–2✓ called — the MUN win we priced at 74% · RPS 0.040
The claim — frozen at kickoff

Manchester United

64Index69Attack57Defense
DDLDW
74%MUN WIN
2–0
Most likely score

Ipswich Town

14Index25Attack8Defense
WLWLL
MAN UNITED 74%DRAW 17%IPSWICH 10%
FT 5–2 — the model called it (RPS 0.040). Graded 2026-08-30 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
69%
Both teams score
56%
Expected goals
2.6 · 0.9
Head to head · 2 league meetings since 2024/25
MUN 11 drawn0 IPS
2024/25MUN3–2IPS2025-02-26
2024/25IPS1–1MUN2024-11-24
Man United — projected scorers
Bruno Fernandes30%72% astGOAL
Bryan Mbeumo51%19% astGOAL
Matheus Cunha25%25% astAST
Patrick Dorgu22%9% ast—
Harry Maguire5%20% ast—
Benjamin Sesko23%1% ast—
Ipswich — projected scorers

No qualified projections yet.

These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.

What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.