Sunday 25 Oct, 14:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Manchester United
64Index69Attack54Defense
DDLDW
45%MUN WIN
2–1
Likeliest MUN win · 9%
Bournemouth
61Index63Attack55Defense
LLDDD
MAN UNITED 45%DRAW 25%BOURNEMOUTH 30%
Over 2.5 goals
64%
Both teams score
66%
Expected goals
1.8 · 1.5
Why
- Manchester United average 2.2 xG at home this season.
- The model makes this 45% vs 30% — closer than the table suggests.
Head to head · 18 league meetings since 2015/16
MUN 95 drawn4 BOU
2025/26BOU2–2MUN2026-03-20
2025/26MUN4–4BOU2025-12-15
2024/25BOU1–1MUN2025-04-27
2024/25MUN0–3BOU2024-12-22
2023/24BOU2–2MUN2024-04-13
Man United — projected scorers
Bournemouth — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals85%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Over 3.5 goals42%
Both teams score66%
Double chance
MUN or draw70%
Draw or BOU55%
MUN or BOUno draw75%
Draw no bet
MUNstake returned on a draw60%
BOU40%
Clean sheets
MUN clean sheet23%
BOU clean sheet16%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| MUN↓ BOU→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are MUN goals, columns BOU. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
Price held steady since first assessment (2026-10-11) — reassessed after every played match, frozen at kickoff.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.