Saturday 29 Aug, 12:30 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
2–2✗ missed — the draw we priced at 22% · RPS 0.197
The claim — frozen at kickoff

Liverpool

62Index71Attack47Defense
DDDLD
60%LIV WIN
1–1
Most likely score

Nottingham Forest

43Index42Attack47Defense
DLDLD
LIVERPOOL 60%DRAW 22%FOREST 18%
FT 2–2 — the model missed (RPS 0.197). Graded 2026-08-29 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
63%
Both teams score
60%
Expected goals
2.1 · 1.1
Head to head · 8 league meetings since 2022/23
LIV 41 drawn3 NOT
2025/26NOT0–1LIV2026-02-22
2025/26LIV0–3NOT2025-11-22
2024/25NOT1–1LIV2025-01-14
2024/25LIV0–1NOT2024-09-14
2023/24NOT0–1LIV2024-03-02
Liverpool — projected scorers
Dominik Szoboszlai25%50% ast—
Cody Gakpo30%22% astAST
Alexis Mac Allister11%24% ast—
Florian Wirtz15%15% astAST
Rio Ngumoha12%18% ast—
Virgil van Dijk21%2% ast—
Forest — projected scorers
Taiwo Awoniyi21%7% ast—
Morgan Gibbs-White18%10% astGOAL
Igor Jesus22%5% ast—
Elliot Anderson5%13% ast—
Neco Williams4%11% ast—
James McAtee2%9% ast—

These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.

What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.