Saturday 12 Sept, 15:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
0–0✗ missed — the draw we priced at 23% · RPS 0.184
The claim — frozen at kickoff

Liverpool

63Index62Attack61Defense
LWDWD
57%LIV WIN
1–1
Most likely score

Fulham

35Index33Attack40Defense
LDDLL
LIVERPOOL 57%DRAW 23%FULHAM 20%
FT 0–0 — the model missed (RPS 0.184). Graded 2026-09-12 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
64%
Both teams score
62%
Expected goals
2.1 · 1.2
Head to head · 12 league meetings since 2018/19
LIV 64 drawn2 FUL
2025/26LIV2–0FUL2026-04-11
2025/26FUL2–2LIV2026-01-04
2024/25FUL3–2LIV2025-04-06
2024/25LIV2–2FUL2024-12-14
2023/24FUL1–3LIV2024-04-21
Liverpool — projected scorers
Dominik Szoboszlai25%49% ast—
Cody Gakpo28%33% ast—
Florian Wirtz23%17% ast—
Alexander Isak28%1% ast—
Alexis Mac Allister10%20% ast—
Virgil van Dijk21%1% ast—
Fulham — projected scorers
Oscar Bobb8%22% ast—
Timothy Castagne10%16% ast—
Antonee Robinson12%6% ast—
Alex Iwobi6%11% ast—
Joshua King9%8% ast—
Harry Wilson5%9% ast—

These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.

What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.