Saturday 12 Sept, 15:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after this week's earlier results (rev 4)
Liverpool
62Index71Attack47Defense
DDDLD
59%LIV WIN
2–1
Likeliest LIV win · 10%
Fulham
36Index36Attack42Defense
LLWDL
LIVERPOOL 59%DRAW 22%FULHAM 19%
Over 2.5 goals
65%
Both teams score
62%
Expected goals
2.1 · 1.2
Why
- Liverpool attack index 71 meets Fulham defense index 42 — one of the biggest mismatches of the week.
- The model makes this 59% vs 19% — a clear favorite on the numbers.
Head to head · 12 league meetings since 2018/19
LIV 64 drawn2 FUL
2025/26LIV2–0FUL2026-04-11
2025/26FUL2–2LIV2026-01-04
2024/25FUL3–2LIV2025-04-06
2024/25LIV2–2FUL2024-12-14
2023/24FUL1–3LIV2024-04-21
Liverpool — projected scorers
Fulham — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals85%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Over 3.5 goals42%
Both teams score62%
Double chance
LIV or draw81%
Draw or FUL41%
LIV or FULno draw78%
Draw no bet
LIVstake returned on a draw76%
FUL24%
Clean sheets
LIV clean sheet31%
FUL clean sheet12%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| LIV↓ FUL→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are LIV goals, columns FUL. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
Price movement — 4 pre-kickoff assessments, every one kept
30 Aug, 16:29LIV 58.9% (−1.9 since first)draw 22.0%FUL 19.1%
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.