Monday 14 Sept, 20:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
4–1✓ called — the LEE win we priced at 45% · RPS 0.191
The claim — frozen at kickoff

Leeds United

55Index49Attack60Defense
LDWDD
45%LEE WIN
1–1
Most likely score

Newcastle United

43Index52Attack35Defense
LWLDW
LEEDS 45%DRAW 26%NEWCASTLE 29%
FT 4–1 — the model called it (RPS 0.191). Graded 2026-09-15 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
60%
Both teams score
63%
Expected goals
1.8 · 1.4
Head to head · 8 league meetings since 2020/21
LEE 24 drawn2 NEW
2025/26NEW4–3LEE2026-01-07
2025/26LEE0–0NEW2025-08-30
2022/23LEE2–2NEW2023-05-13
2022/23NEW0–0LEE2022-12-31
2021/22LEE0–1NEW2022-01-22
Leeds — projected scorers
Dominic Calvert-Lewin47%2% astGOAL
Lukas Nmecha17%23% ast—
James Justin13%13% ast—
Ao Tanaka10%13% ast—
Jayden Bogle7%16% astGOAL
Brenden Aaronson4%15% ast—
Newcastle — projected scorers
Yoane Wissa26%3% ast—
Harvey Barnes18%12% ast—
William Osula21%5% ast—
Nick Woltemade5%19% ast—
Joe Willock9%12% ast—
Lewis Hall4%16% ast—

These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.

What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.