Monday 14 Sept, 20:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Leeds United
51Index48Attack54Defense
DWLWD
45%LEE WIN
2–1
Likeliest LEE win · 9%
Newcastle United
49Index56Attack41Defense
WDLWD
LEEDS 45%DRAW 26%NEWCASTLE 29%
Over 2.5 goals
59%
Both teams score
62%
Expected goals
1.7 · 1.3
Why
- The model makes this 45% vs 29% — closer than the table suggests.
Head to head · 8 league meetings since 2020/21
LEE 24 drawn2 NEW
2025/26NEW4–3LEE2026-01-07
2025/26LEE0–0NEW2025-08-30
2022/23LEE2–2NEW2023-05-13
2022/23NEW0–0LEE2022-12-31
2021/22LEE0–1NEW2022-01-22
Leeds — projected scorers
Newcastle — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals82%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Over 3.5 goals37%
Both teams score62%
Double chance
LEE or draw71%
Draw or NEW55%
LEE or NEWno draw74%
Draw no bet
LEEstake returned on a draw61%
NEW39%
Clean sheets
LEE clean sheet26%
NEW clean sheet18%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| LEE↓ NEW→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are LEE goals, columns NEW. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
Price held steady since first assessment (2026-08-31) — reassessed after every played match, frozen at kickoff.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.