Sunday 18 Oct, 14:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Leeds United
55Index49Attack60Defense
DWDDW
37%MUN WIN
1–2
Likeliest MUN win · 8%
Manchester United
69Index72Attack59Defense
DLDWL
LEEDS 36%DRAW 26%MAN UNITED 37%
Over 2.5 goals
59%
Both teams score
62%
Expected goals
1.5 · 1.5
Why
- The model makes this 36% vs 37% — closer than the table suggests.
Head to head · 8 league meetings since 2020/21
LEE 13 drawn4 MUN
2025/26MUN1–2LEE2026-04-13
2025/26LEE1–1MUN2026-01-04
2022/23LEE0–2MUN2023-02-12
2022/23MUN2–2LEE2023-02-08
2021/22LEE2–4MUN2022-02-20
Leeds — projected scorers
Man United — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals82%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Over 3.5 goals36%
Both teams score62%
Double chance
LEE or draw63%
Draw or MUN64%
LEE or MUNno draw74%
Draw no bet
LEEstake returned on a draw50%
MUN51%
Clean sheets
LEE clean sheet22%
MUN clean sheet22%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| LEE↓ MUN→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are LEE goals, columns MUN. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
Price held steady since first assessment (2026-10-04) — reassessed after every played match, frozen at kickoff.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.