Saturday 10 Oct, 15:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Ipswich Town
16Index32Attack6Defense
LWLLW
40%FUL WIN
1–2
Likeliest FUL win · 9%
Fulham
35Index37Attack37Defense
DDLLL
IPSWICH 34%DRAW 26%FULHAM 40%
Over 2.5 goals
61%
Both teams score
64%
Expected goals
1.5 · 1.6
Why
- Fulham attack index 37 meets Ipswich Town defense index 6 — an away-side mismatch the table won't show you.
- The model makes this 34% vs 40% — closer than the table suggests.
Head to head · 2 league meetings since 2024/25
IPS 02 drawn0 FUL
2024/25FUL2–2IPS2025-01-05
2024/25IPS1–1FUL2024-08-31
Ipswich — projected scorers
Fulham — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals84%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Over 3.5 goals39%
Both teams score64%
Double chance
IPS or draw60%
Draw or FUL66%
IPS or FULno draw74%
Draw no bet
IPSstake returned on a draw46%
FUL54%
Clean sheets
IPS clean sheet19%
FUL clean sheet22%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| IPS↓ FUL→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are IPS goals, columns FUL. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
Price held steady since first assessment (2026-09-26) — reassessed after every played match, frozen at kickoff.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.