Saturday 22 Aug, 12:30 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
2–0✗ missed — the HUL win we priced at 16% · RPS 0.540
The claim — frozen at kickoff

Hull City

39Index28Attack55Defense
WWLLL
61%MUN WIN
1–1
Most likely score

Manchester United

67Index72Attack54Defense
WLWWD
HULL 16%DRAW 23%MAN UNITED 61%
FT 2–0 — the model missed (RPS 0.540). Graded 2026-08-22 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
60%
Both teams score
57%
Expected goals
1.0 · 2.1
Head to head · 4 league meetings since 2014/15
HUL 02 drawn2 MUN
2016/17MUN0–0HUL2017-02-01
2016/17HUL0–1MUN2016-08-27
2014/15HUL0–0MUN2015-05-24
2014/15MUN3–0HUL2014-11-29
Hull — projected scorers

No qualified projections yet.

Man United — projected scorers
Bruno Fernandes25%70% ast—
Bryan Mbeumo42%14% ast—
Matheus Cunha16%13% ast—
Benjamin Sesko18%1% ast—
Patrick Dorgu9%6% ast—
Kobbie Mainoo5%10% ast—

These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.

What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Hull — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.